Newb Error or Not? Adjusting Recommended Lay Stake

Hello Matt & bettors (and thank you for great site!)

I’ve been interested in MB for a while and after reading about it all weekend, I finally decided to take the plunge today, but have I done something stupid?

For my qualifying bet I put £10 on Cam Norrie to beat Djokavich (sp?) as my back bet at 9.0 odds. Lay bet was 12 odds and your Bet calculator recommended a lay bet of £7.51 which gave a guaranteed loss of £2.93. (The free bet I get will be £20, so not too bothered with a £3 loss.)

However, I decided to change the lay stake to £7 with the intention of lowering the liability to £77. If Cam wins I get £80 profit and lose £78.54 (2% comm), if Djokavich wins I lose £10 and “win” £6.86, so still a £3 loss. If my maths is correct (maths dunce tho).

I know you’d normally look for much closer odds than this, but I thought it a good idea to put on a mug bet to start with. So, sorry for long rambling post but have I made a newb error in manipulating the lay bet in this way and have I misunderstood or just plain got the maths wrong?

I think I understand the principal of MB’ing the opening offers, but I admit to having terrible maths. Any thoughts, warnings, opinions gratefully received.

Edit: I’ve just thought, maybe I should have just bet my tenner on cam and not bothered to lay it? Win £80 or lose a tenner? And lay the free £20 bet? Or is that just daft gambling?

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RedKnee
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July 7, 2022 at 11:52 am

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RedKnee 0 July 7, 2022 at 4:51 pm

I’m going to answer my own post, after fretting for hours about making this daft bet and doing a bit more reading. So this is called Underlaying I think and probably not my best idea ever.

Instead of the ‘£10 loss or microscopic profit’ bet, I should have just followed the newb instructions and found smaller and closer odds. Duh.

Anyway, I’ve cashed out the lay bet and instead made a new one with a £5 stake and £55 liability. I’ll either lose £5 or make £25 (80 minus 55 lay liability?)*. Not what I should have done, but I’m ok with it. Lesson learned.

*Btw, if my maths is completely wrong and I stand to lose more than I think, please feel free to let me know. ;0)

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Matt
Keymaster
1490 July 8, 2022 at 3:49 pm

Hi @redknee,

I’m not sure which bets you have and haven’t placed now, but hopefully, it will work out. If not, the £20 free bet should serve as insurance.

As you’ve realised, placing qualifying bets at low odds is always best as that will minimise your qualifying losses.

Use my Matched Betting Calculator and check all the key numbers before placing your bets.

One last thing to mention… Be careful betting on tennis as the retirement rules at the bookmakers can sometimes differ from those at the betting exchange. You could be left out of pocket in the event of a retirement. I advise sticking to football and horse racing while you find your feet.

I hope that helps.

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RedKnee 0 July 8, 2022 at 6:30 pm

Thanks Matt. I’ll be following the newb walk-throughs to the letter from now on.

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RedKnee 0 July 9, 2022 at 12:16 pm

I think the penny might(?) finally have dropped….

I’ve been thinking if you lose your back bet and win the lay bet, you only get your lay bet stake returned, minus commission. So a guaranteed small loss.

But do you actually get your stake AND the bettor’s stake returned, minus comm.?

Despite reading (many times) that you, as the lay bettor, are acting as a bookie, I’ve been reading the “bettor’s stake” box on Betfair as MY stake. When it’s actually also the stake belonging to my opponent, who is my punter. So I get his money returned to me as well as my own.

Please tell me if I’ve finally got this correct. I think this is probably something that’s very simple and I’ve made it sound difficult.

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Matt
Keymaster
1490 July 10, 2022 at 9:59 am

Don’t worry. It can take a little time to get your head around.

When you place a lay bet, you are taking on the role of ‘bookmaker’.

Using your original example, you placed a £7.00 lay bet against Cameron Norrie at lay odds of 12.00. There’s someone on the other side of every exchange bet, so if you’re laying a bet, someone else is backing it.

When you click the lay button, it asks you to enter the ‘Backer’s stake’. That’s simply the amount you wish to lay. So, you’re laying £7.00 against Norrie at odds of 12.00, and someone else is on the other side, staking £7.00 on Norrie to win at odds of 12.00.

Your lay stake of £7.00 is the amount you stand to win from the backer if Norrie loses. Your liability (£77.00) is the amount you stand to lose if Norrie wins. Your liability for any bet is deducted from your balance pending the event’s outcome.

If Norrie wins, your lay bet loses, and you need to pay the backer their winnings. So, the £77.00 being held would be paid out to the backer.

If Norrie loses, you win the backer’s stake of £7.00, minus commission.

I hope that helps.

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RedKnee 0 July 10, 2022 at 10:16 am

Thanks for your patience, Matt. I’m mortified that I can’t get this lay maths into my head.

So to stay with this bet, if Norrie loses, I only get back my £7 lay stake minus the commission? I don’t actually win any profit?

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Allan 5 July 25, 2022 at 10:46 pm

You are not risking £7 on the exchange. By laying Norrie you are risking the Liability in the event that he does win which is £77 ( as explained above). In effect you are backing him to lose: £77 staked to win £7. You will get the £77 returned to your exchange account if Norrie loses plus your winnings of £7 less commission on the £7.

If Norrie wins you will lose £77 on the exchange but that should not be a worry because you will have backed him to win with a bookmaker and so your winnings and stake will be in your account there.

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