Non Runner Notification Service
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Would anyone be interested in subscribing to a Non Runner notification service? You’d get Non Runner notifications for UK and Irish races emailed to you within minutes of the horse being withdrawn. The service will operate between 9am and 10pm and will inform you of the racecourse, race time and the horse name.
I’ll look into setting up a free trial for those that are interested.
+1January 21, 2018 at 2:47 pm
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I’m playing devils advocate here, not trying to be rude.
Why would I want one? The only reason I’d want notifications is when I’m EW Arbing and I’d be going to check the places anyway to get my bet on…..
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It’s an advantage with Betfair Edge too..
I’ve only ever seen it once but I managed to get my edge bets on an 8 horse race when I knew one was a non-runner..
But as above, I don’t think it’s a service I’d ever be prepared to pay for.
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Fair enough guys. I pretty much full time ew arb and although a non runner is annoying (what with having to work out rule 4 reduction and something losing a place for a black jackpot). I personally find it very useful to be told when it occurs, rather than having to discover it.
I have been dabbling in programming and put together code myself and just thought others might find it useful as a service (and that I might be able to make a few extra quid from it). I might have it post to Twitter instead.
Thanks for the flat stats link, I am interested to see how the speed of their service compares. A rule 4 reduction built in would be very useful addition to my program, but I have yet to find a way to poll prices without the need for an api (or xml).
Thanks for your responses.
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We’ll good luck to you Ryan. If you’re full time you obviously know more than me!
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What is your thinking here Ryan?. On face of it doesn’t seem n much of an advantage but you have obviously done it for a reason.
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Raspberry pi is great…. 😁
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Just came across this post from a websearch. This is something I’d very much be interested in if you got it off the ground, it could be insanely profitable to know about non runners before bookies/exhanges update their odds if that’s at all possible.
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Insanely profitable? Whats your angle here.
I have stumbled on situations where the bookies hasn’t updated their runners list or the exchange hasn’t. And in both cases haven’t really found anything exploitable.
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Bookies have to adhere to Tattershalls Rule 4 deduction tables, exchanges do not as their reduction is based on the likelihood of the remaining horses winning according to the individual exchange’s traders. When a low prices horse pulls out and you’re on another favourite there is often a bigger reduction on lay stake than the bookie stake creating an opportunity to either lock in more profit or let it ride for even more profit if it wins.
You can’t specifically target it but on a few occasions when I have a back/lay on one of 2 favourites and the other one is withdrawn I have found my exchange lay odds (and therefore liability) adjusted to 1.0001 while the bookie reduction is restricted to what they have to adjust which essentially is turning your bookie backbet into a free bet.
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Its a tricky one to create an arb with a Non runner between bookie and exchange as you’d need close odds in the first place. Also there is no guarantee on the reduction betfair will apply (their stated reduction is not always used). It is a little easier if a bookie is offering best price or if they don’t apply the 5p r4 for first reduction.
When I created this I was using it to exploit bots trading on the Matchbook and Smarkets exchanges. These exploits have since been fixed, but you might still have luck with Smarkets. This video shows these techniques: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8by38YvD4Cc
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Interetsing stuff, however I am on a 0% commission deal with SM and MB which will be removed for “trading” if I start making backbets with them.
I have made huge profits on at least 4 occasions due to a rule 4 deduction mismatch between bookies and exchange without the need for BOG etc.
For example if a race has horses of 1.8, 2.5, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 12 and 14 odds and I have an existing ~£1k backbet/lay from an arb on the favourite.
The 2.5 horse is withdrawn.
The bookie deducts 40% from the odds so the back odds at the bookie are reduced to 1.32 as they are bound by the Tatterhalls tables. However the exchange, having their own discretion to deduct what they wish, decides that horse is now pretty much nailed on to win and adjusts the lay stakes of existing bets to 1.001 pretty much giving a full lay of the £1k backbet with about £10 liability.Is the horse wins the bookie pays out at 1.32 but the lay loses at 1.001 leaving a massive profit. Alternatively you can re-calc the lay and lock in a big profit regardless of the result.
+1Hi mate, how would I get this service?
+0I’d be interested if it’s still going!?🤔
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