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Sporting Index – Bad Beat Special Offer

Has anyone looked into whether Bad Beat Specials (as offered by Sporting Index, for example) are a potential source of profit through matched betting? Feels similar to an Extra Place offer on horse racing.

This evening, Sporting Index have Leeds at odds of 2.05 to be match winners with Bad Beat Special. Currently, the Betfair Exchange lay odds on Leeds to win the game are 2.18.

So, if Leeds lose the match, but ‘win’ according to the Expected Goals measure, you’d get your stake back as a free bet up to £50. On a £10 back stake, the lay stake is £9.49 and QL is around 70p. So, a potential profit of £7.30?

Is there a catch, and how likely is a payout?

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Neil S
76

August 30, 2022 at 4:44 pm

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Matt
Keymaster
1557 September 1, 2022 at 12:27 pm

Hi @neil-s,

Like extra place offers, you’ll lose a lot more of these than you’ll win, so you must keep your qualifying losses to a minimum.

If you’re staking £10, keep your qualifying losses down to around 20p – 25p.

If you do that, then you should be nicely in profit when you hit the refunds.

I hope that helps.

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Neil S 76 September 1, 2022 at 1:37 pm

Cheers, Matt. I did indeed lose in the above example (the game ended a draw) but it was a close call!

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