It’s Arsenal v Tottenham in the Premier League on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Arsenal or Tottenham to win the match and if our selected team scores first, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, up to £25.00 in cash, no matter what happens! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £42.24 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59 on 1st June 2020.
- Qualifying single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Arsenal v Tottenham.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:30 (kick-off) on Sunday 1st September 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £25.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- Estimated profit under £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £37.50 in cash (£12.50 winnings, plus our £25 stake).
- Estimated profit exactly £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £50 in cash (£25 maximum winnings, plus the full £25 stake that contributed to those winnings).
- Estimated profit over £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £35 in cash (£25 maximum winnings, plus the £10 of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Arsenal in the 90 Minutes market.
If Arsenal score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £25.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £25.00 by 1.35 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £18.52. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £20.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.11…
Place £20.00 on Arsenal @ 2.35 = Potential profit of £27.00
Lay £19.11 on Arsenal @ 2.48 = Potential liability of £28.28
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal score first and win | +£27.00 | -£28.28 | £1.28 loss |
| Arsenal score first and don’t win | +£23.52 | +£18.72 | £42.24 profit |
| Arsenal don’t score first and win | +£27.00 | -£28.28 | £1.28 loss |
| Arsenal don’t score first and don’t win | -£20.00 | +£18.72 | £1.28 loss |
So, if Arsenal score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £25.00, plus the £18.52 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £23.52 at William Hill. We’ll also win £18.72 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us an overall potential profit of £42.24!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose £1.28. Risking £1.28 to make a profit of £42.24, gives us effective odds of 34.00, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Monday 2nd September 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet on them to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.50 (4/5), you would divide £43.52 (£1.28 + £42.24) by 1.50, giving you a back stake of £29.01 and a guaranteed profit of £13.23.
* Tottenham scored first and went on to draw the match 2-2, resulting in a loss of £1.28 on this William Hill offer. *
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jamesy85
0I’m trying to work out potential profit and loss do that I can attempt to lock in a profit if spurs score first but the payout rules are confusing me. Would appreciate someone explaining to me in the following scenario.
I chose spurs and backed them for £15 @ 2.87 on William hill and layed on smarkets 3.1 (lay stake £13.98) for potential loss of £1.30.
What would be potential loss and profit in this scenario ???
Thanks
Matt
1603If Tottenham score first and go on to draw or lose the game, you’ll receive cash winnings of £25.00, plus the £13.37 of your stake that contributed to those winnings, giving you a profit of £23.37 at William Hill.
You’ll also win £13.70 from your lay bet at Smarkets, giving you an overall potential profit of £37.07.
Hope that helps.
jamesy85
0Matt, thanks for the reply. I am sure it’s probably me but how did you work out the proportion of stake that contributed to winnings. That is the part that has me confused. Apologies if it’s obvious but just can’t get my head around it. Cheers
Matt
1603No problem…
£15.00 at odds of 2.87 should return a profit of £28.05, but the winnings are capped at a maximum of £25.00.
£25.00 / £28.05 = 0.891% payout
0.891 * £15.00 (stake) = £13.37
jamesy85
0Matt, thank you. Totally Makes sense now.
Matt
1603You’re welcome!
Kenny rogers 777
Guest userDoesnt matter if yr not gubbed by betway like me. Guaranteed money
Timmy
Guest userEh?
DavidC444
Guest userHi :0)
I’ve been reading up on ‘gubbing’ and am now worried that as soon as I place say, a couple of these ‘Golden Goals’ bets on through the coming weeks, that I will be gubbed! Forgive my drama, but I am a lifelong ‘worrier’ and suffer from severe anxiety. Why do bookies offer these offers, if only to ban you ? I have no intention of doing lots of matched betting, just a couple perhaps per week, through different bookies, but I’m so confused by it all now as for instance, ‘withdrawals’ – before I was aware of matched betting I would always withdraw after a win, my wins are always small, never anything over my max win of £140 ever, and never had any issues, but now I’m reading regular withdrawals will get be ‘gubbed!’ Will I be penalised for regularly betting on a certain offer, like this ‘Golden Goals?’ – the bets won’t always come in anyway & the bookies will make money off me, while I recoup with the lay bet. Sorry for this ramble, but how an earth did you manage to make as much as you have ***Matt*** without being blacklisted with everyone?
From a worrier,
David :0( x
p.s… I’ve also read up on ‘mug betting also’ so understand the premise :0)
Pete
Guest userPersonally whenever I win on the bookmaker side, through a promo, I tend to bet again with some of the winnings using their site. Particularly if I win a decent amount. (Up to you whether you want to lay that off). This (imho) seems to keep them happy and probably/ possibly falls into their idea of fair play. If you do that I don’t think they really care whether you’re match betting or not.
DavidC444
Guest userThank you so much Pete, your reply was very much appreciated & I will take your advice :0)
Hammer
Guest userI’ve been doing this for over a year, only a few bets a week with 3 or 4 bookies and am just over 2 grand in profit. I always do the golden goals at Hills and their enhanced odds trebles, and sometimes the scratch of the day at weekends but not always. I do usually double the minimum bet so it doesn’t look like I’m extracting the max profit each time. Haven’t been gubbed yet…
Don’t worry about it. Seems to me if you stick to the big games and look like a mug you don’t even need to worry about mug bets.
DavidC444
Guest userThanks Hammer for telling of your experience with this, it’s put my mind at rest somewhat, all the best :0)