It’s Man Utd v Man City in the Premier League on Wednesday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Man Utd or Man City to win the match and if our selected team scores first, but doesn’t go on to win, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, in cash, up to £50.00! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £57.15 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59:59 on 1st June 2019.
- Qualifying Single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Man Utd v Man City.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 20:00 (kick-off) on Wednesday 24th April 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £50.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- If we stake £100 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £150 in cash (£50 winnings, plus our £100 stake)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £100 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £50 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
- If we stake £100 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £70 in cash (£50 max. winnings, plus the £20 of our stake that contributed to those winnings)
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Man Utd in the 90 Minutes market.
If Man Utd score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £50.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £50.00 by 6.00 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £8.33. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £10.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.00…
Place £10.00 on Man Utd @ 7.00 = Potential profit of £60.00
Lay £9.00 on Man Utd @ 7.80 = Potential liability of £61.20
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Man Utd score first and win | +£60.00 | -£61.20 | £1.20 loss |
Man Utd score first and don’t win | +£48.33 | +£8.82 | £57.15 profit |
Man Utd don’t score first and win | +£60.00 | -£61.20 | £1.20 loss |
Man Utd don’t score first and don’t win | -£10.00 | +£8.82 | £1.18 loss |
So, if Man Utd score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £50.00, plus the £8.33 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £48.33 at William Hill. We’ll also win £8.82 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us a nice overall profit of £57.15!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose a maximum of £1.20. Risking £1.20 to make a profit of £57.15, gives us effective odds of 48.63, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Thursday 25th April 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £58.35 (£1.20 + £57.15) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £32.42 and a guaranteed profit of £24.73.
* Man City scored the first goal and went on to win the match 2-0, resulting in a loss of £1.18 on this William Hill offer. *
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Mark
Guest user£120 back stake if doing City, ouch
Bob
Guest userProbably gonna steer clear of this, but for £1.20 seems to be worth it. Gotta hand it to WH, they keep picking matches that aint getting anywhere for us.
Petor
Guest userYou say that, but I’ve rinsed them…and lost at the exchange *sob sob*
Mark
Guest userThe Burnley game last night would have been great
Scott
Guest userIf you dont want the risk of doing it this way just arb it with next goal lay at betfair? Its guaranteed money.
Here are my workings out based on current odds….
Man Utd win £9 @ 7
Man Utd next goal Lay £12.95 Liability @ 4.6
Man Utd score first and win +54 -46.62 =7.38
Man Utd score first and dont win +50 -46.58 =3.38
Man Utd dont score first and dont win -9 +12.30 =3.30
Man Utd dont score first and win +54 +12.30 =66.30
chris
Guest userjust do the opposite of my pick and you would have won everytime on this WH offer lol
Jay
Guest userSeem to only remember this hitting in Arsenal vs Spurs (would have also hit on Wolves vs Watford in the FA cup if you were on Wolves but I was on Watford)
Steve55
Guest userHi all
Can anyone tell me the outcomes of doing this offer with a free bet of £10 on Man U if i layed next goal for the arb? I have a feeling it may not give the right result if Man U score first and then lose/draw.Thanks
Scott
Guest userHey mate, this is the best I could do in a couple minutes with the odds from last night (think the next goal lay is currently a tad better at 4.5). You might be able to tweak it more to your liking though 🙂
Man Utd win £10 SNR @ 7.00
Man Utd next goal Lay £12.95 Backers Stake (£46.62 Liability) @ 4.60
Man Utd score first and win +60 -46.62 =13.38
Man Utd score first and dont win +50 -46.62 =3.38
Man Utd dont score first and dont win +12.30 =12.30
Man Utd dont score first and win +60 +12.30 =72.30
Matt
1490As per the terms Steve…
‘Bets placed using a Free Bet (in whole or in part) will not qualify.‘
Steve55
Guest userThanks Matt
Must start to read t & c’s….Thanks also to Scott….Let’s hope Utd score first and cave in!!!!…..GL everyone
bobb
Guest userif they somehow score at all they will cave for sure, they were awful against Everton….
Matt
1490No problem Steve.
Ben
Guest userI’ve received an email offer for this, but paying out for up to £250. Anyone else?
jimbojack
Guest userMe too, so glad I hadn’t gotten around to placing this bet yet.
Daithi
Guest userYeh same. Thinking 50 on United at 6 then lay and pray?