It’s Watford v Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday and you don’t want to miss this Golden Goal offer from William Hill! Simply place a bet on Watford or Arsenal to win the match and if our selected team scores first, William Hill will pay us out as a winner, up to £25.00 in cash, no matter what happens! Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £33.60 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Promotion available on selected matches from 00:01 on 5th January 2019 until 23:59 on 1st June 2020.
- Qualifying single bets must be placed on the 90 Minutes market for Watford v Arsenal.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 16:30 (kick-off) on Sunday 15th September 2019.
Golden Goal Winnings:
Golden Goal winnings will be paid as cash, up to a maximum of £25.00 (plus our stake, or the proportion of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
- Estimated profit under £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 1.50 (1/2), we’ll receive £37.50 in cash (£12.50 winnings, plus our £25 stake).
- Estimated profit exactly £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 2.00 (evens), we’ll receive £50 in cash (£25 maximum winnings, plus the full £25 stake that contributed to those winnings).
- Estimated profit over £25 – If we stake £25 at odds of 3.50 (5/2), we’ll receive £35 in cash (£25 maximum winnings, plus the £10 of our stake that contributed to those winnings).
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
Having looked at the odds available, we could place our qualifying bet on Watford in the 90 Minutes market.
If Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the match, our winnings will be paid in cash, up to a maximum of £25.00.
To calculate our back stake, we just need to divide £25.00 by 2.70 (back odds minus 1.00), which gives us £9.26. It’s best that we stick to round numbers when placing our qualifying bet, so we should stake £10.00 instead.
At the time of writing, laying our bet at Smarkets gives us the smallest qualifying loss.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.54…
Place £10.00 on Watford @ 3.70 = Potential profit of £27.00
Lay £9.54 on Watford @ 3.90 = Potential liability of £27.66
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Watford score first and win | +£27.00 | -£27.66 | £0.66 loss |
Watford score first and don’t win | +£24.26 | +£9.34 | £33.60 profit |
Watford don’t score first and win | +£27.00 | -£27.66 | £0.66 loss |
Watford don’t score first and don’t win | -£10.00 | +£9.34 | £0.66 loss |
So, if Watford score first and go on to draw or lose the game, we’ll receive cash winnings of £25.00, plus the £9.26 of our stake that contributed to those winnings, giving us a profit of £24.26 at William Hill. We’ll also win £9.34 from our lay bet at Smarkets, giving us an overall potential profit of £33.60!
Any other outcome and we’ll lose £0.66. Risking £0.66 to make a profit of £33.60, gives us effective odds of 51.91, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our cash winnings will be credited within 3 hours of the match finishing or by no later than 12:00 on Monday 16th September 2019.
Note: If your team scores first, you can either let it run as above or place an extra back bet on them to lock in a profit. If you decide to guarantee a profit, you just need to divide the sum of your potential loss and potential profit by the back odds. For example, if the back odds are 1.80 (4/5), you would divide £34.26 (£0.66 + £33.60) by 1.80, giving you a back stake of £19.03 and a guaranteed profit of £14.56.
* Arsenal scored first and the match was drawn 2-2, resulting in a loss of £0.66 on this William Hill offer. *
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DavidC444
Guest userHi Matt & anyone that can help :0)
What do you do if the odds for the place bet have gone down, as of writing this, the odds are now 3.6, which now means a potential loss of £ -0.91, as opposed to £ -0.66. I know it’s only pennies, but it’s more about understanding if you can adjust the bet in any way?
All the Best :0)
Matt
1486If the odds fluctuate David, it’s just a case of plugging the new odds into the calculator to get the correct lay stake.
£0.91 is still a very acceptable qualifying loss, given the potential profit on offer.
DavidC444
Guest userThanks Matt :0)
Mathew
Guest userWondering if Matt can help me with this:
If you back Arsenal and lay Arsenal to score next on Betfair, it seems you have a guranteed profit of about £3. If Arsenal then go on to not score first but still win its a profit of about £53.
Am I missing something?
Matt
1486It’s another valid way of doing things Mathew, depending on the odds available.
Steve1955
Guest userhi Matt…have you seen the Paddy offer on this match?…free bet up to £10 if Aubameyang scores anytime…it’s on any market!!!…paid out on losing bets…unusual for them not to make it correct score/goalscorer/what’s…hope I’m not reading it wrong
Steve1955
Guest userit was in the promotion list
Matt
1486Yes I did thanks Steve, I had it up on the Football Offers page.
They originally posted it as selected markets but like you say, it now applies to ALL markets which is rather nice!
I’ll get it posted later today.
Kennyrogers777
Guest userOdds for watford too far apart. Also watford was the only team not to score against arsenal last year
Nick
Guest userHeads up, there’s a b50g50 In play on bet365 for Liverpool match on Tuesday.
I imagine it’s invite only as usual.
Matt
1486Thanks for the heads up Nick. Just posted.
Sully
Guest userLovely offer. Bet (and laid) £17.50 on Arsenal to win this one at evens so had a nice little win. Hope you guys did too (given Arsenal’s ability to keep a clean sheet this season! Lovely!)
Matt
1486Nicely done Sully!