It’s the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on Wednesday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power Money Back Special! Simply place a bet on the 13:30 at Cheltenham and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £7.30 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Applies to pre-race bets placed from 10:00 on Monday 9th March 2020.
- Applies to singles and the win part of each way singles.
- If less than 7 runners take part, the offer will revert to money back if 2nd for that particular race.
- If our selection finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Sporting John (4/1) in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £0.70 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Extracted | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting John wins | +£40.00 | -£40.70 | £0.70 loss | |
| Sporting John finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th | -£10.00 | +£9.30 | +£8.00 | £7.30 profit |
| Sporting John finishes outside top 4 | -£10.00 | +£9.30 | £0.70 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.30 if Sporting John finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £0.70 on any other outcome. Risking £0.70 to make a profit of £7.30 gives us effective odds of 11.43, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, our free bet will be credited within 2 hours of the race ending and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
* Envoi Allen was available at back odds of 1.727 and lay odds of 1.73. Envoi Allen won the race, resulting in a loss of £0.10 on this Paddy Power offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.