The Cheltenham Festival 2020 gets underway on Tuesday and you don’t want to miss this Paddy Power Money Back Special! Simply place a bet on any race at Cheltenham on Day 1 and if our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us an overall potential profit of £50.00+ and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Applies to pre-race bets placed from 08:00 on Friday 28th February 2020.
- Applies to singles and the win part of each way singles.
- If less than 7 runners take part, the offer will revert to money back if 2nd for that particular race.
- If our selection finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Paddy Power will refund our stake as a free bet, up to £10.00.
Qualifying Bets:
This offer is available on all Day 1 races on Tuesday 10th March 2020 as follows…
| Time | Race |
|---|---|
| 13:30 | Supreme Novices’ Hurdle |
| 14:10 | Arkle Chase |
| 14:50 | Ultima Handicap Chase |
| 15:30 | Champion Hurdle |
| 16:10 | Mares’ Hurdle |
| 16:50 | Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase |
| 17:30 | National Hunt Chase |
If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
It’s entirely up to you which horses you go for, but it would make sense to select horses with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.
The back and lay odds should tighten up as the start of the festival gets nearer. In the meantime though, I’ll use fictional lay odds for Shishkin (11/4) in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle to illustrate how this offer should be done. I’ll update the table at the bottom of the post with some actual selections after each race.
We can calculate our lay stakes using my Matched Betting Calculator.
Aim to lose no more than £0.75 on our qualifying bet
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
| Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Extracted | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shishkin wins | +£27.50 | -£28.25 | £0.75 loss | |
| Shishkin finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th | -£10.00 | +£9.25 | +£8.00 | £7.25 profit |
| Shishkin finishes outside top 4 | -£10.00 | +£9.25 | £0.75 loss |
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £7.25 if Shishkin finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose £0.75 on any other outcome. Risking £0.75 to make a profit of £7.25 gives us effective odds of 10.67, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
This offer is available on all seven races on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival 2020, giving us an overall potential profit of £50.00+ on this Paddy Power offer!
If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the respective race ending. Free bets will be valid on horse racing for 7 days and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
I’ll update the following table with some actual selections after each race…
| Race | Selection | Back Odds | Lay Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Asterion Forlonge | 4.333 | 4.50 | +£7.47 |
| 14:10 | Notebook | 4.333 | 4.50 | -£0.53 |
| 14:50 | Vinndication | 6.50 | 7.00 | +£7.12 |
| 15:30 | Epatante | 3.20 | 3.25 | -£0.29 |
| 16:10 | Honeysuckle | 4.00 | 4.30 | -£0.85 |
| 16:50 | Imperial Aura | 5.00 | 5.30 | -£0.72 |
| 17:30 | Carefully Selected | 2.50 | 2.56 | -£0.36 |
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £85,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.