£100.00+
Potential Profit
£165.58
Actual Profit

Goodwood Festival 2020 Offer – Unibet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 28/07/2020 13:45

It’s Goodwood Festival 2020 this week and you don’t want to miss this Unibet ’15 to Go’ offer! Simply bet on any ITV race in the 15 minutes before the scheduled start time and if we back the winner, Unibet will match our stake with a free bet, up to £20.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £100.00+ and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Minimum stake of £5.00.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed on the selected ITV races in the 15 minutes before the scheduled start time.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed at odds of 2.00 (evens) or greater.
  • If eligible, we must click the ’15 to Go’ button in our betslip before placing our bet.
  • If our selected horse wins, Unibet will match our stake as a free bet, up to £20.00.

Qualifying Bets:

If you’re unfamiliar with qualifying bets, please see my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

This offer is available on the following 29 races…

13:45, 14:15, 14:45, 15:15 and 15:45 at Goodwood each day between Tuesday 28th July 2020 and Friday 31st July 2020.

13:50, 14:25, 15:00, 15:35 and 16:10 at Goodwood, plus the 14:05, 14:4, 15:15 and 15:50 at Newmarket on Saturday 1st August 2020.

It’s entirely up to you which horses you place your qualifying bets on. We won’t know what odds are available until 15 minutes before the off, so I’ll use fictional odds for Battleground (11/8) in the 14:15 at Goodwood on Tuesday and I’ll update the bottom of the post with some actual selections after the races.

At the time of writing, laying our bet at Betfair is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

Option 1:

We know that if our horse wins, we’ll be able to extract 80% cash from the £20.00 free bet. We can therefore add 0.80 to the back odds to get our effective odds…

2.375 + 0.80 = 3.175

We simply enter 3.175 as our back odds instead of 2.375 and lay the amount shown on the calculator. Overlaying like this is fine, but the guaranteed profits are likely to be small.

Option 2:

Our second option is to lay our bets as normal and hope some of our horses win for bigger profits.

We can calculate our stake using my matched betting calculator…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £19.00…

Unibet logo

Place £20.00 on Battleground @ 2.375 = Potential profit of £27.50

Betfair logo

Lay £19.00 on Battleground @ 2.52 = Potential liability of £28.88

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Extracted Profit/Loss
Battleground wins +£27.50 -£28.88 +£16.00 £14.62 profit
Battleground doesn't win -£20.00 +£18.62 £1.38 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £14.62 if Battleground wins, otherwise we’ll lose £1.38. Risking £1.38 to make a profit of £14.62 gives us effective odds of 11.59. So, given that Battleground is odds of just 2.375 (11/8) to win the race, this is a profitable offer in the long run.

ITV are covering 29 races across Goodwood Festival 2020 week, giving us an overall potential profit of £100.00+ on this Unibet offer!

If eligible, free bets will be credited within 2 hours of the weigh-in and will be valid on horse racing for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

If you’re unsure how to extract £16.00 cash (80%) from the £20.00 free bets, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

I’ll update the following table with some actual selections after the races…

Race Day Selection Back Odds Lay Odds Profit/Loss
14:15 Goodwood Tuesday Battleground 2.50 2.54 +£17.95 *
14:45 Goodwood Tuesday Space Blues 3.00 3.20 +£14.49
15:15 Goodwood Tuesday Santiago 2.75 2.94 -£1.54
15:45 Goodwood Tuesday Recon Mission 4.333 4.60 -£1.46
14:45 Goodwood Wednesday Steel Bull 4.00 4.20 +£14.76
15:15 Goodwood Wednesday Mohaather 3.25 3.50 +£29.30 **
15:45 Goodwood Wednesday Spright 2.20 2.32 -£1.26
13:45 Goodwood Thursday Magnetised 4.00 4.50 -£2.50
14:15 Goodwood Thursday Yazaman 2.50 2.70 -£1.72
14:45 Goodwood Thursday English King 2.20 2.26 -£0.76
15:15 Goodwood Thursday Fancy Blue 3.50 3.80 +£19.15 ***
15:45 Goodwood Thursday William Bligh 2.375 2.62 -£2.10
13:45 Goodwood Friday One Master 2.625 2.86 +£14.11
14:15 Goodwood Friday My Oberon 3.50 3.95 -£2.55
14:45 Goodwood Friday Prompting 3.75 4.00 +£19.48 ****
15:45 Goodwood Friday Communique 3.75 3.95 -£1.31
13:50 Goodwood Saturday Rewaayat 4.00 4.30 -£1.69
14:05 Newmarket Saturday She's So Nice 2.20 2.32 -£1.26
14:25 Goodwood Saturday Laafy 3.125 3.40 -£1.88
14:40 Newmarket Saturday Karibana 2.625 2.86 +£14.11
15:15 Newmarket Saturday Katara 2.20 2.26 +£15.26
15:35 Goodwood Saturday Nahaar 4.333 4.60 -£1.46
15:50 Newmarket Saturday Withhold 2.25 2.42 +£14.38
16:10 Goodwood Saturday Society Lion 2.25 2.46 +£14.08

* Battleground won the 14:15 at Goodwood on Tuesday at starting price (SP) odds of 2.625 (13/8), resulting in a profit of £17.95, courtesy of Unibet’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

** Mohaather won the 15:15 at Goodwood on Wednesday at starting price (SP) odds of 4.00 (3/1), resulting in a profit of £29.30, courtesy of Unibet’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

*** Fancy Blue won the 15:15 at Goodwood on Thursday at starting price (SP) odds of 3.75 (11/4), resulting in a profit of £19.15, courtesy of Unibet’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

**** Prompting won the 14:45 at Goodwood on Friday at starting price (SP) odds of 4.00 (3/1), resulting in a profit of £19.48, courtesy of Unibet’s Best Odds Guaranteed promotion.

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