£9.16
Potential Profit
£9.35
Actual Profit

Marsh Novices’ Chase 2020 Offer – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/03/2020 13:30

It’s the Marsh Novices’ Chase on Thursday and it’s time for another Sky Bet Money Back Special! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in the 13:30 at Cheltenham, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.16 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on a horse that runs in the Marsh Novices’ Chase.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 11:00 on Tuesday 10th March 2020 and 13:30 (race-off) on Thursday 12th March 2020.
  • If fewer than eight runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’re unsure about how to place qualifying bets, check out my Qualifying Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how they should be done.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Itchy Feet in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.35…

Sky Bet logo

Place £10.00 on Itchy Feet @ 4.00 = Potential profit of £30.00

Betfair logo

Lay £9.35 on Itchy Feet @ 4.30 = Potential liability of £30.85

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeCashbackProfit/Loss
Itchy Feet wins+£30.00-£30.85£0.85 loss
Itchy Feet finishes 2nd 3rd 4th or 5th-£10.00+£9.16+£10.00£9.16 profit
Itchy Feet finishes outside top 5-£10.00+£9.16£0.84 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.16 if Itchy Feet finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.85 on any other outcome. Risking £0.85 to make a profit of £9.16 gives us effective odds of 11.78, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Mister Fisher was available at back odds of 8.00 and lay odds of 8.40. Mister Fisher finished 4th, resulting in a profit of £9.35 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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