There’s a big day of racing at Newbury on Thursday and it’s time for another Sky Bet money back offer! If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 14:30 at Newbury, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.28 and here’s how…
- This offer applies to our first bet on the 14:30 at Newbury.
- Qualifying bets must be placed between 09:00 on Wednesday 4th November 2020 and 14:30 (race-off) on Thursday 5th November 2020.
- If fewer than seven runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
- If our horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.
If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my Qualifying Bets Guide.
It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd or 3rd place finish.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Third Wind in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.
Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.
If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.
For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.
We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.47…
Place £10.00 on Third Wind @ 5.00 = Potential profit of £40.00
Lay £9.47 on Third Wind @ 5.30 = Potential liability of £40.72
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
|Third Wind wins||+£40.00||-£40.72||£0.72 loss|
|Third Wind finishes 2nd or 3rd||-£10.00||+£9.28||+£10.00||£9.28 profit|
|Third Wind finishes outside top 3||-£10.00||+£9.28||£0.72 loss|
So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.28 if Third Wind finishes 2nd or 3rd and we stand to lose £0.72 on any other outcome. Risking £0.72 to make a profit of £9.28 gives us effective odds of 13.89, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.
If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.
* Third Wind was available at back odds of 6.00 and lay odds of 6.20. Third Wind finished outside the top 3, resulting in a loss of £0.49 on this Sky Bet offer. *
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Matt Kirman – Matched Betting Blogger
Since 2014, I’ve blogged over £70,000 worth of profit, and made it my mission to make matched betting accessible to everyone.