£9.23
Potential Profit
£9.07
Actual Profit

Money Back Offer (15:35 Doncaster) – Sky Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 12/09/2020 15:35

There’s another big day of racing at Doncaster on Saturday and it’s time for another Sky Bet money back offer! If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the 15:35 at Doncaster, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a potential profit of £9.23 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • This offer applies to our first bet on the 15:35 at Doncaster.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed between 12:00 on Thursday 10th September 2020 and 15:35 (race-off) on Saturday 12th September 2020.
  • If fewer than nine runners come under starters orders, Sky Bet may withdraw the offer.
  • If our horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, Sky Bet will refund our stake as cash, up to £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

If you’d like more information about qualifying bets and how they work, please see my Qualifying Bets Guide.

It’s entirely up to you which horse you go for, but it would make sense to select a horse with fairly short odds in the hope of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Santiago in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the smallest qualifying loss.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can calculate our lay stake using my matched betting calculator…

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £9.42…

Sky Bet logo

Place £10.00 on Santiago @ 3.75 = Potential profit of £27.50

Betfair logo

Lay £9.42 on Santiago @ 4.00 = Potential liability of £28.26

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

Outcome Bookie Exchange Cashback Profit/Loss
Santiago wins +£27.50 -£28.26 £0.76 loss
Santiago finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th -£10.00 +£9.23 +£10.00 £9.23 profit
Santiago finishes outside top 4 -£10.00 +£9.23 £0.77 loss

So, we’ll make a nice profit of £9.23 if Santiago finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th and we stand to lose a maximum of £0.77 on any other outcome. Risking £0.77 to make a profit of £9.23 gives us effective odds of 12.99, which I’m sure you’ll agree, makes this a profitable offer in the long run.

If eligible, cash refunds will be credited within 24 hours of the race finishing.

* Santiago was available at back odds of 4.333 and lay odds of 4.70. Santiago finished 4th, resulting in a profit of £9.07 on this Sky Bet offer. *

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