It’s the Winter Derby Stakes at Lingfield on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Virgin Bet Money Back Special! Simply place a bet on the 15:15 at Lingfield and if it loses, Virgin Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.00 and here’s how…
Key Terms:
- Qualifying bets must be placed on the Winter Derby Stakes.
- Qualifying bets must be placed before 15:15 (race-off) on Saturday 22nd February 2020.
- If our bet loses, Virgin Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00.
Qualifying Bet:
Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free bet offer.
We’ll need to select a horse with long odds in order to maximise our profit.
At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Court House in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.
At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the largest guaranteed profit.
Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.
If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.
For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.
We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £10.00 free bet refund, should our horse lose…
As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.14…
Place £10.00 on Court House @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £120.00
Lay £8.14 on Court House @ 15.00 = Potential liability of £113.96
Outcomes:
Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…
Outcome | Bookie | Exchange | Extracted | Profit/Loss |
---|---|---|---|---|
Court House wins | +£120.00 | -£113.96 | £6.04 profit | |
Court House doesn’t win | -£10.00 | +£7.97 | +£8.00 | £5.97 profit |
So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of around £6.00 on this Virgin Bet offer!
If eligible, our free bet will be credited within 3 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.
* Dubai Warrior was available at back odds of 2.75 and lay odds of 3.00. Dubai Warrior won the race, resulting in a profit of £4.42 on this Virgin Bet offer. *
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Sleepless
Guest userReduce calculated stake by £1, incase you win.
Mark
Guest userMatt has already taken that into consideration in his calculations, no need to reduce stake further.
Odds way off at the moment, best is Court House 13/25, will tighten up more near the off.
Sleepless
Guest userOdds so bad just taking value bet on 2nd fav.
Sleepless
Guest userNo he hasn’t. Just reduce calculated stake by £1+ for value punt.
Matt
1490There’s nothing wrong with tweaking the stake as you see fit.
We can use the slider to see what impact changing the lay stake will have on our profit figures.
Mark
Guest userOdds so far off, 17/34 on Court House, 2.37/3.05 on Dubai Warrior.
Mark
Guest userJust done Dalgarno back 41 lay 50
Sleepless
Guest userBoom