£6.00
Guaranteed Profit
£4.42
Actual Profit

Winter Derby 2020 Offer – Virgin Bet


Posted by Matt (administrator) Matt
Start Time: 22/02/2020 15:15

It’s the Winter Derby Stakes at Lingfield on Saturday and you don’t want to miss this Virgin Bet Money Back Special! Simply place a bet on the 15:15 at Lingfield and if it loses, Virgin Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00. Translated into matched betting terms, this gives us a guaranteed profit of £6.00 and here’s how…

Key Terms:

  • Qualifying bets must be placed on the Winter Derby Stakes.
  • Qualifying bets must be placed before 15:15 (race-off) on Saturday 22nd February 2020.
  • If our bet loses, Virgin Bet will refund our stake as a free bet, up to a maximum of £10.00.

Qualifying Bet:

Losing stakes are refunded as a free bet, so this is effectively a risk-free bet offer.

We’ll need to select a horse with long odds in order to maximise our profit.

At the time of writing, the lay odds aren’t quite tight enough, so I’ll use fictional lay odds for Court House in the following example and I’ll update the bottom of the post with an actual selection after the race.

At the time of writing, laying our bet with Betfair is likely to give us the largest guaranteed profit.

Betfair are currently offering new customers 0% commission up to £500 for the first 30 days.

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

Banner showing the zero commission sign up offer from Betfair

If you’re an existing Betfair customer, you can opt in to pay just 2% commission by selecting their Basic reward plan.

For more information about My Betfair Rewards and how to opt in, please see my Betfair 2% Commission page.

We can work out our lay stake by using the ‘Risk-Free Bet’ setting on my matched betting calculator. We can enter £8.00 as our ‘Cashback’ figure as this is the amount we can expect to extract (80%) from our £10.00 free bet refund, should our horse lose…

Select bet type

Back Bet (Bookie)

%

Lay Bet (Betting Exchange)

%

Min £
Max £
Lay stake required: £
Bookie
Exchange
Cashback
Total
If back (bookie) bet wins
£
£
£
= £
If lay (exchange) bet wins
£
£
£
= £

Total profit: £

Optimal Underlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

Optimal Overlay

Lay stake required: £
Exchange liability: £

If back (bookie) bet wins: £
If lay (exchange) bet wins: £

As you can see, the calculator tells us that our lay stake should be £8.14…

Virgin Bet logo

Place £10.00 on Court House @ 13.00 = Potential profit of £120.00

Betfair logo

Lay £8.14 on Court House @ 15.00 = Potential liability of £113.96

Outcomes:

Let’s have a look at our potential profit/loss for the possible outcomes…

OutcomeBookieExchangeExtractedProfit/Loss
Court House wins+£120.00-£113.96£6.04 profit
Court House doesn't win-£10.00+£7.97+£8.00£5.97 profit

So, regardless of the outcome, we’ll make a guaranteed profit of around £6.00 on this Virgin Bet offer!

If eligible, our free bet will be credited within 3 hours of our qualifying bet being settled and will be valid for 7 days. Free bet stakes are not included in any returns.

If you’re unsure how to extract £8.00 cash (80%) from a £10.00 free bet, check out my Free Bet Strategy page for a walk-through guide on how it should be done.

* Dubai Warrior was available at back odds of 2.75 and lay odds of 3.00. Dubai Warrior won the race, resulting in a profit of £4.42 on this Virgin Bet offer. *

Comments


  1. Sleepless

    Guest user

    Reduce calculated stake by £1, incase you win.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Mark

      Guest user

      Matt has already taken that into consideration in his calculations, no need to reduce stake further.

      Odds way off at the moment, best is Court House 13/25, will tighten up more near the off.

      +1
      Reply
  2. Sleepless

    Guest user

    Odds so bad just taking value bet on 2nd fav.

    +0
    Reply
  3. Sleepless

    Guest user

    No he hasn’t. Just reduce calculated stake by £1+ for value punt.

    +0
    Reply
    1. Matt

      256

      There’s nothing wrong with tweaking the stake as you see fit.

      We can use the slider to see what impact changing the lay stake will have on our profit figures.

      +0
      Reply
  4. Mark

    Guest user

    Odds so far off, 17/34 on Court House, 2.37/3.05 on Dubai Warrior.

    +0
    Reply
  5. Mark

    Guest user

    Just done Dalgarno back 41 lay 50

    +0
    Reply
  6. Sleepless

    Guest user

    Boom

    +0
    Reply

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