My theory beyond matched betting
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Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.
The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.
For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)
Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.
As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.
Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.
+0June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Will check it out. Are you laying the place immediately or do you wait to see if odds are dropping
+0There’s no real liquidity in the place market until close to the off so that’s why i wait.
I still make my selections based on the place market at the time. If im getting 4.2 for the place and it’s currently trading 2.5/2.6 on the exchange (even with thin liquidity), i’m happy to place my bookies bet.
+0Cheers for that. Was a 0.6 diff between the win odds but made £1.40 on laying the place. Didn’t realise how low the place market could be. I layed the place immediately after laying the win. £10EW bet by the way.
Understand completely what I’m doing now. It’s just picking the right races and checking the odds.
I created a quick spreadsheet with two calculators (one for win and one for place)
In addition I also made a table where I can put the odds in and converts to decimal for win, 1/4 odds and 1/5 odds. All this on one page. 3 Internet tabs open (bookies,betfair win market,betfair place market)Whole process from making first bet was about 2mins (double checked everything) I will definitely be doing this from here on out.
Once you’ve learnt the calculations then doing this in store is a viable option if the worst should happen to your online accounts.
Thanks again beesty for opening my eyes to this
+0I laid the place immediately though had I waited could have made a bit more.
Same here, got a spreadsheet where just put in all the odds, whether it’s 1/5 or 1/4 and the profits are calculated. Will be keeping an eye out on this I’m future now. Seems pretty easy, just a bit time consuming finding the right races. Perhaps a post where we can put the races on would be useful?+0Great to see some people have some success with it. It takes a few races to build up experience but once you know what your doing then everything becomes quicker in terms of picking out the races. I’ll blog some after this in case anyone wants to do any this evening.
+0Top man beesty. Donyatt suppose you have found a website which lists races for the day along with how many runners? I looked but with no success. Would save time on clicking every single race
+0Bath
6:00
8:00 plus 8:30 (marginal races)Kempton
6:40
Fairy house
6:20
6:50
7:20+0Mike j the problem is it’s not every race with 8/9 runners. It’s races where these have a well backed favourite and a few outsiders. The favourite ensures the others are higher odds and means that when you divide by 4 or 5 the odds turn out in our favour on the place market.
I’m sure a few will begin to find the races but I will be able to post them in 3 weeks when schools have broken up. Until then it will be when I get a moment.
+0Hey beesty
Thanks for the contribution. I have been matched beeting for a year, made a few grand, but gubbed on most accounts. I looked into each way arbing a while ago, but I was lacking the info on what races to look for, so thanks. Any benefit in using oddsmonkeys each way matcher for this rather than looking manually? Would be goid if you could post up some examples of real odds you take as its a bit diificult to see in retrospect from these posts.
Cheers
+0@mike j (and everyone)
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing
bit of a pain click through each race, but you do get an idea of the market and which bookies are holding the exchange prices up…
+0Thanks deaths tar. Shows the favourite and how many runners of each race on one page. Should shorten time searching
+017:15 at Doncaster and 14:50 at Sandown look pretty good options for today unless there’s a non-runner at Sandown which might make it difficult
+0Bit risky that I would think.
Doncaster 17:15 was a pretty great shout. Got 5.5/4 on the win and 1.9/1.5 on the place. Works out at a 30% return on initial stakes.
This could definitely be a decent top up long term if using reasonable stakes I think providing you pick the right races. Great spot beesty!+0Nice wins am. It is definitely good to do on gubbed accounts. You can take bookies for a bit more even after the initial gubbing. I’m hoping with one site they have restricted me to a max win of 500 in the last few mins before the race. Whilst this is not as much as I was doing before it still means I can make enough in a day to make things profitable.
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