My theory beyond matched betting

Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.

The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.

For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)

Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.

As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.

Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.

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beesty2016
3

June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm

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beesty2016 3 July 2, 2016 at 1:30 pm

Races for today:

Sandown and haydock

B365 are a 1/4 on all races so could be 2/3 really good opportunities on the race card

Beverley

2:25

Bellowstown

Lots of opportunities in races with 16 plus runners

Nottingham

5:45

Carlisle

9:05

Some good ones and good luck for it!

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sub_tone 0 July 2, 2016 at 11:15 pm

I think this is the link to the EW calculator which was referred to earlier:

https://www.antodev.com/extraplace/

Hope it helps

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Stanleybayor 7 July 4, 2016 at 1:14 pm

Beesty2016 – massive congrats, a great effort and thanks for sharing with the community.

A few questions if you have a moment:

1) how long before the race are you typically getting a lay match on the win part? 20-30 mins? I have found this part to be quite tricky as the odds on bet365 vs the exchange rarely seen to be close enough.

2) how are you identifying which races meet your criteria for being optimal? By eye?

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mike j 13 July 4, 2016 at 7:39 pm

One for tonight.
19.55 roscommon
red stars bet fred
back/lay is 9/9
e/w bookie / lay is 3/2.38 at time of writing.

£60e/w gives a little over £10 give or take depending on commission

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cumbriangregg 0 July 4, 2016 at 10:02 pm

Mike j, I’m struggling to get my head round it but I like ur winnings from tonight. Can u break it down a bit more for me plz

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Dave_Jones 9 July 5, 2016 at 8:41 am

@Cumbrian

On the win part of the bet (using smarkets) mike j will loose £1.07. On the place part of his bet he will make £14.75, hence a profit of £13.68.

If using Betfair then he will loose £2.68 on the win part, and make £13.39 on the place part, hence a profit of £10.71.

As can be seen from the above, if its possible to lay the bets on smarkets it increases the profit by close to 28%.

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AM 0 July 5, 2016 at 9:38 am

From a quick look this morning (not been through all races) the 16.10 looks like a good shout providing no withdrawals. A clear fav and 2 good shouts at 2nd/3rd.
It is possible (at least from my observations) that if you back early and lay closer to the race to make gains on both parts of the bet. There may be some risk associated with that (i.e. odds drifting) but in the types of races being targeted this doesn’t seem to happen often.

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cumbriangregg 0 July 5, 2016 at 11:42 am

Dave Jones, thanks for the reply, much appreciated. Do I place three separate stakes or is it just two like MB?
Iv been watching this guy on YouTube and like his spreadsheet, is this the same?

https://youtu.be/V2Y8DAshEhE

Iv been match betting for about three months but would like to move onto the next level. I’d be more than happy with £10 a day which I know is peanuts compared to some of the big hitters on here, but £3500 tax free per year will make a big impact

Cheers
Gregg

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Dave_Jones 9 July 5, 2016 at 2:06 pm

@Cumbrian, you need to do three bets, here are the details:-

1. At the bookies make an E/W bet.

2. At the exchange lay the win part of the bookies win bet.

3. At the exchange lay the place part of the bookies place bet.

If you have not done laying of E/W bets before then I would probably read through this complete thread a couple of times and fully understand what you are trying to do, and also the dangers that are involved. You will notice that its possible to loose a fair amount of money doing this unless you fully understand what you are trying to do.

You can find yourself in the unfortunate position of not getting paid on a place position from the bookie (due to one or more non runners), but still having to cover the place liability on the exchange should the horse come home in one of the place positions. This happened to one of the posters on this thread, hence why I suggest you read through it carefully.

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Chris 22 July 5, 2016 at 2:33 pm

So maybe post an example of how to do the 4.10 at Pontefract today. What horse to go for, what you back and what you lay. Can be based on hypothetical odds.

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MbPunter 24 July 5, 2016 at 4:47 pm

Bit late now but example of the last race was Brief time 8.0/8.8, let’s say £10 ew stake £1.07 loss. The place 2.4/1.7 would be a £4.00 profit.

But as mentioned here non runner or withdrawal can be risky. As happened with this race, a late withdrawal meant only 7 runners, so ended up being 1/4 odds for 2 places, whilst the exchange don’t alter the place market.

The 2nd favourite ended up coming 3rd. So anyone opting for that would have lost their place lay on the exchange aswell as losing at the bookies. As it panned out Brief time came 2nd and would have been paid 2.75 odds on the place.

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supert 6 July 5, 2016 at 5:39 pm

Disaster for me that race ffs!! Had £60 ew different journey… had to take £7 loss on win but made nice arb on place… late withdrawal had no time to back out of the place so lost £60 with bookie and £41 on smarkets plus £5 on the win part!!
Anyway anyone who had brief encounter with betbright check settlement!!!
I had £40 ew on that too @ 6.5 so because only 7 ran should have paid 1/4 odds meaning £95… the robbing bastards paid me £84 … 1/5 odds… i phoned them first he said cos its a maiden not h’cap its 1/5 but i said its 110% 1/4 pal… he checked came back to say sorry yeah we owe you £11 …. so beware!!

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pbetts 2 July 5, 2016 at 6:22 pm

Bloody hell!!!
That’s why I don’t do it. Got burnt the first time!
Anyway good luck all.

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cumbriangregg 0 July 5, 2016 at 8:14 pm

8:50 at Uttoxeter looks good, does it not?? 12 horses, 3 with short odds

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MbPunter 24 July 5, 2016 at 8:50 pm

Yeah 1/4 of the odds too. Spotted a couple of decent ones 17/16.5 and 7. 0/6.8. Places 5.0/3.7 and 2.5/1.9.

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