My theory beyond matched betting
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Hi all have not posted in a while and have seen the forum collapse due to the lack of offers. My online career is all but over now due to being gubbed in the last week by my last few standing accounts. Anyway people will want to argue this but over the last month I turned a 4K bankroll into 21k by something called each way arbing.
The basic jist of this is to pick races with 8,9 16-20 runners and backing certain horses each way. It always works in fields of 16-20 runners where 4 are paid and works in the 8 or 9 especially when there are 2 or 3 outsiders or an odds on favourite.
For example I put 100 ew on a 12/1 shot on bet365 in a 17 runner race. I am looking to lay at 13 on betfair. Let the lay match and as soon as it has take the 12/1. Current position is your down a max of 5 pounds on bf commission. (Use smarkets if you wish)
Then go on the place markets and lay the horse. The odds on 365 are 3/1 (4) as a 1/4 of the odds. On betfair this should be lower and often trading around 3.3/3.4. This means you can play about with the numbers to make a profit but say i lay 120 @ 3.4 to lose 288 I can make around 12-14 on this part after commission. Therefore I’m around a tenner up before the race regardless of what happens.
As my bankroll got bigger I got better at it by doing multiple horses in races and laying the places 3 mins before the start of the race. people can say what they want about me being 17k up from it but I know I have made this money and the theory works if you are sharp at maths can react quickly to mental calculations and I know a few people on here would be able to do it.
Good luck to those who go for it. I will be spending some time at mates houses over the summer and taking a 50 50 cut for the use of their name.
+0June 22, 2016 at 9:37 pm
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New to matched betting?
My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Got burnt on Different journey in the 16.10 at Pontefract as well. Supert, if you do have time, how is it possible to back out of the place part of the bet? Got gubbed by Betbright after only a few small bets. They never even sent me an email. Only found out after contacting them to see why I wasn’t credited with a free bet I won. Horrible company!
+0Couldn’t you just cash out at both ends as soon as there is a non runner and cut your losses???
+0Nickb when i say back out of the place mean bet on betfair what you laid if you can to leave you with no loss and have to leave the place part on your betting account as a bet… if places then great if doesnt then least you only lose at bookies…obs this way thou you dont recoup your losses if for example this horse didnt fin in 3rd …
This race in essanse was a 3 horse race today so if had backed out of tge place part on betfair would have saved myself around £40ish+0Thanks Mike j and supert for your replies. Only been match betting for a short while and this was my first attempt at doing this so not the greatest of starts. Fortunately, I didn’t lose too much, but will try to cancel out the place lay if it happens again.
+0gulp! was playing around with the theory on this and just managed to bet e/w on grey britain in the 2.30 at lingfield by accident whilst clicking around webpages
Guess I will have to wait until nearer the off now for some liquidity to see if the theory translates into profit!
+0had a complete mare as odds drifted in exchange despite considerably dropping at bookies. I had £50 e/w@21, and only managed to get £45 layed against the win before race off………
horse came 2nd so fluked a nice profit of nearly £200! 🙂
dont think i will be doing that again in a hurry though.
+0With this very handy calc https://www.antodev.com/extraplace/ can somebody explain the cashback box with a worked example please? Why it is filled in etc thank you.
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How long before the start of the race would you wait until you back and lay the win part of the bet?
Is it just a case of chancing your arm and going for it once the back and lay odds are the same or almost the same?
I want to get into this but will use smaller stakes for the time being until I’m confident with the method.
+0I’ve been doing it about 45 mins before when back and lay odds are the same. I also make sure that the lay place odds are lower than bookie place odds from three e/w bet. I don’t lay the place tho until a few minutes before the race
I didn’t have much luck tho yesterday.
+0Cheers Mike J. I’ve had a look at a few races and seen that the lay odds for the place market do fall a fair bit on the majority of horses for these type of races.
I’ll probably definitely use betfair rather than Smarkets as the exchange too.
Ladbrokes are doing 5 places @ 1/4 odds for the 15:45 Newmarket today.
+0Still apprehensive about this, everything seems to be retrospective on this thread.
+0Act of Freedom @Doncaster 2:50. Currently 5.5/6.2. to win and 1.9/1.69 to place. Back now and wait for the lay to come down to around 5.4/5.3 to cancel out the commission element (assuming it does, which it should do looking at the rest of the pack). Lay the place near to the off and it should come down to around 1.6 meaning from £10 e/w (£20) should return a profit of £1.99.
The risk with this comes if the lay odds don’t come down or there are withdrawals which invoke rule 4+0Thats rich coming from you Chris.
I thought your middle name was restrospective lol+0AM – Did the prices come down as you expected at the off?
+0Lads and Sky 1/4 odds for 5 places in the next.
Dancing Star 8.0/8.6, 2.75 place can be laid at odds on in the 5 to place market.
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