Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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I have a feeling there’s a small mistake somewhere. Using the same assumptions (£10, 90%, same back and lay odds, 10% bonus), I get that the first lay stake should be only £9.88.
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This is something I’m slowly getting my head round, could one of you guys explain how you calculate the expected value/profit as once I understand that I will start to create my own acca sheet.
+0Well the spreadsheet overlays each leg to ensure that you get the expected value profit out of each leg so regardless which leg loses you end up in profit, assuming a sequential lay.
The issue I (think) is that f you get to the last leg I’m not sure the spreadsheet calculates this correctly.
I’ve been a lot of reading around the backward induction method, which I’ve tried to formulate here.
Maths has never been a strong point but I’m prepared to put sine work in to nail this down and get a spreadsheet together like what is used with accumulator generator to guarantee profit on each acca.+0
Yeah Marshalex it seems when I try to work it out the liabilities stack up too high if all 6 win, even with the 10% bonus. Do you know if that 10% is based on your returns inc stake or just the profit?
+0Nice job marshalex thanks for sharing, I think your being a little hard on yourself by saying maths is not your strong point, I would imagine less than 20% of match bettors could write such a spread sheet.
In cell E21 which calculates the back return I think you need to include for the 10% bonus if the acca wins.
+0I’ll try and get my head round this tomorrow, I think it should be 2 legs down before you get a profit.
What I’m thinking this is probably wrong 🙂
if all 6 win you get back £34.45
if 1-5 win you get your freebet + your last lay stake so if you say 90% extraction of your freebet =£9, which will make your lay @ leg 6 £25.45 ?
this looks wrong when I work it back more head scratching needed lol
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In a nutshell, you’re overlaying too much. In the case that all of the legs win, you should be laying the following amounts:
1. £9.88
2. £10.94
3. £12.42
4. £18.19
5. £19.60
6. £23.06This staking plan gives you a guaranteed return of £2.18 from the £10 bet. Of course, if one of the legs loses, the laying stakes change. For example, if the first leg lost, you would stake only £2.55 on the second leg (and if that were to win, you’d stake £3.30 on the next leg etc.).
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marshalex forget what I wrote about cell E21 it makes no difference. I think there is something more important wrong with this spread sheet.
If the first 5 legs all win and then the sixth leg looses I don’t see how you end up with a £2.66 profit. Here are the figures:-
At the end of match 6 you will win £28.43 * 0.98 = £27.86 at the exchange plus £9 extracted from the free bet which you will have been given making a total of £36.86.
Over the first five legs you will have lost £2.33+£4.61+£9.85+£3.53+£6.55 = £26.87 at the exchange plus your initial stake of £10 at the bookies making a total loss of £36.87 so I do not see where the profit of £2.66 comes from.
BTW I am not sure but I think the 10% bonus is on your winnings not on your back return this would reduce your EV a little so down from £12.66 to around £12.42.
Please do not be discouraged by your work I think you will learn a great deal by carrying out this work. I seem to recall Mark mentioning the Solver function in Excel once or twice in previous threads. I wonder if you need to be using this function in order for the spread sheet to operate correctly.
+0I think your lay stake is based on your current pattern (there are 2^n patterns for an n-fold accumulator. But we don’t need to consider all of those, since the game is over if 2 losses happen).
On my first attempt on a 5-fold I got 15 equations, but unfortunately something went wrong and my script returns some negative lay stakes. If it’s not caused by a writing mistake, my method might be flawed after all.+0Do I need to work this out from the last leg and then work backwards?
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I know nothing about these spreadsheets (far too complicated for me) but arent to setting the bar too high thinking your regularly gonna get 90% back from a free bet? I think if i find anything over 80% im doing well.
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Probably varies and depends on factors such as bankroll. If I get anything less than 90% then I think I’m doing badly.
+0Mark could you give me a clue of how you work out your lay stakes I’m really struggling with this
Thanks
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Backward induction. Consider the conditional scenario that you make it to the final leg and compute the value and lay stakes etc. Then work backwards knowing the value should you reach this node of the tree.
+0Is the value the expected profit?
Could you link to an example of backward induction
I keep thinking I’ve got this and then come up with different lays than you lol
I might have to get my 12 year old nephew to have a look 🙂
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