Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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@ eggman. I think he is working out the EV using probabilities like Mark explained some time back in that long thread, and which marshalex put into his/her spreadsheet. I then think he knocks off one or two percentage points off this value.
@ deezer53 I have the same problem, nothing after row 45.
+0This is exactly what he/she is doing
If when opening the link you save it to your google drive you should then be able to open it up and:
1) See all the formulae &
2) See the rows in questionIf not then pls see extract of the rows in question from the spreadsheet below which may help?
Stake 50.00
Acca Odds 3.30
Return 165.19P(All Win) 24.04%
P(1 Loss) 39.67%
P(2+ Loss) 36.29%Extract 85%
Bonus 0%
Odds incl Bonus 3.30EV 56.58
No. Back Lay P(Win) P(Lose)
1 1.27 1.37 0.73 0.27 0.09
2 1.27 1.32 0.76 0.24 0.08
3 1.27 1.32 0.76 0.24 0.08
4 1.27 1.32 0.76 0.24 0.08
5 1.27 1.32 0.76 0.24 0.08+0tennis punter – regarding cells I45, N30 etc these are actually a hangover from an earlier version of the sheet that I developed from a screenshot posted in an earlier thread. They can all be deleted with the exception for the ones in the final leg as these are used to derive the lay stakes for the final leg.
In summary, if you enter your own back and lay odds (the sheet has fictional odds with the lay odds 1% greater than the back odds and in practice you should be able to find better), stake value, commission rate and expected return from the free bet then everything else calculates itself.
The one exception is that you’ll also have to manually enter the target profit. Use trial and error until all outcomes return the same profit. The target profit will be less than the profit from the expected value if you choose to lay – hence why other contributors advocate not laying – but generally only marginally, and solely due to the commission on lay stakes.
+0Thank you Sam22009 and noted.
That last bit of coding is rather clever!
My first thoughts were to just use the EV profit figure as your target profit but if all legs win then your final profit is much reduced. I feel there is a formula that would work out the ideal target profit so that your wins are evened out regardless of outcome. Dammed if I know what it is right now.
+0@Sam22009 that’s a cracking spreadsheet and after spending a bit of time last night (much to the annoyance of the missus) I can see how this all works.
I’ve also noticed that the maximum available profit is 87.5% of the expected value so if you put that into the target profit it should ensure that identical profit is returned for all stakes.
This should be good for the laddies acca as that’s a return stake if one loses on a 5 fold. Hopefully it won’t take too much modification to push this through to a 6-fold for WH etc.
Great work!+0
Great work Sam, this looks great!
Are you willing to open up the spreadsheet to allow others to edit the values, or use a separate copy?
Cheers
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Really big Thank you for this sheet I’ve been trying to get my head around this for weeks
If you get chance later Sam could you have a look where I’ve gone wrong
I’ve been trying to modify your sheet to work with 6 legs
I’ve put the calculations in for 1st leg lose outcome so far
at the moment LL and LWWWWL meets target profit the others are all the same figure but higher than target profit
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U-7hZrbvOqLCBt3CT9eJ6T1ubVJD1OOf4VIZGl49IWQ/edit?usp=sharing
thanks
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Sam’s spreadsheet is almost correct… virtually gives same values as I would have expected. My only question is: why have some “target profit”? Why not make it equation driven to work out the guaranteed profit for you?
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Is it just me that can’t seem to edit the values on this spreasheet? Anybody else having trouble?
+0I downloaded the sheet Starlord or you can click file, make copy and this will put in your google drive
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We’ve been rumbled mark!
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Sams sheet is pretty good, however given the requirement to manually resolve with trial and error, and inability to recalculate lay stakes once exchange odds change mid way through, its usefulness is limited. I shall post my sheet shortly once uploaded which gets around these limitations.
Originally I was planning to launch a website with the tool as I feel it is more convenient than a spreadsheet file. I do not however have the free time to create this in the near future so will share the spreadsheet to save you struggling to use sub-par creations in this thread.
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You’re all very kind for taking the time to create these sheets and for sharing your efforts.
Personally, I’ll be waiting for Jez/Marks’ dream machine as I think I can be fairly confident it will be the dog’s danglies 🙂
+0Sounds fantastic thanks Jez
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