Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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If you use the guaranteed method, your profit is the same regardless of the outcome in each leg (it doesn’t matter how many legs lose).
I rarely do the accumulator offers now as there are more lucrative opportunities available, but you can achieve £15-20 profit per accumulator(£50 stake) – once again, the number of legs losing has no bearing on the return. During good weeks (this week is a prime example with internationals and plenty of big favourites), you can make a guaranteed £100+ from William Hill alone.
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@ccr
Using the guaranteed profit method and assuming both back and lay odds of 1.25 (for illustrative purposes), 2% commission, £50 stake and an 80% free bet extraction rate, the following profits are obtained for different numbers of legs and bonus rates with William Hill:6-fold – 10% bonus – £18.06
9-fold – 15% bonus – £16.34
12-fold – 20% bonus – £14.50
15-fold – 25% bonus – £13.45As you can see, with these bonus tiers you don’t gain anything from extending the number of legs. In addition, the maximum exposure increases from under £200 for a 6-fold to over £1700 for a 15-fold.
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Mark, didn’t you say the acca’s were worth more than all of the other offers combined?? What are these more lucrative opportunities you are referring to?
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Haha ya Mark spill the beans 🙂
Nice work Blue, clear as day that, and easier!
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William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Paddy Power…lots of bookies offer acca insurance i.e. free bet refund if miss by one leg. Only William Hill offer a bonus on top, as far as I’m aware, but BetVictor also guarantee best price on their accas. Terms vary e.g. some stipulate a minimum price per leg or restrict the offer to particular leagues or competitions, so you need to check each carefully to ensure you will qualify for a refund. William Hill are the best, as they have practically no restrictions – and the bonus – though their minimum is a 6-fold, other bookies offer refunds on 5-leg accas.
Hope this helps, though there is tons of information on accas available on this forum.
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@Drogs, they are worth more than all the other offers combined – you can make £200+ per week from them if you do acca insurance with all the bookmakers. There are several opportunities to make even more, however… Yes, it’s still matched betting in the sense that you’re minimising qualifying losses and taking great value, but they’re not “offers” per se. (And no, sorry, I wouldn’t be comfortable disclosing this – be happy with ACCA insurance for now ;-))
Just a general tip: there are many more opportunities beyond those which sites such as MBB reveal!
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so something other than Matchedbetting then or… ?? 😀
+0> Dave_Jones: I am not certain but I’m fairly sure Mark has stopped the not laying method now. I think he did some Monte Carlo simulations and found the risk of ruin was higher than he had originally expected. So I think he now lays off all legs.
@Dave_Jones, I have about €4,000 in my bankroll so I hope that will be enough for the variance.> Blank: Your method has some benefits – mainly that the first five legs can overlap allowing us to take advantage of more matches. The price we pay for this is not guaranteeing profit from every acca we do, and running with the variance.
> Blank: Firstly, we only make money here when the first five legs win, that means we should look for legs with the shortest odds possible. This may just be an example but your first leg at odds of 1.5 seems too long, I’d aim for <1.25 wherever possible.
> Blank: I’m a bit confused by your spreadsheet, particularly the ‘to back’ cell, d18 and subsequent calculations using it?
> Blank: As I understand your method, you leave the first 5legs without laying, to me that would go like this;
> Blank: 1) first 5 all win – use ‘risk free’ section of calculator to work out lay, back odds = total odds of Acca + bonus, stake = £50, lay odds = lay odds of the final match, free bet value = £42.50. From your example we’d guarantee £156 profit at this point.
> Blank: 2)1 of first 5 has lost -we are down our stake of £50, but can lay the final leg against potential return of £42.5. (If the final leg is longer odds, you won’t guaruntee much from this.)
> 3) Blank: 2+ lost, we are down £50
@Blank The legs in the spreadsheet was just examples and the spreadsheet was editable so people changed it. As for your 2) I actually didn’t think of this scenario! Thank you for this, I will try to add that to the spreadsheet.+0
Anyone done any of the african cup of nations or asia world cup qualifiers as im thinking of it with some really good low odds at bookies side but way off at exchange side but im assuming they’ll close right up closer to the match, any heads up would be appreciated
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@the_don, There’s quite a high risk of ruin if your bankroll is only 4k and you’re placing £50 accumulators. The more relevant scenario to consider is what will you do if you go on a losing streak and are down, say, 2k? Will you continue?
+0Hi Everyone.
this is my first post here as I have spent easter on my cell phone reading up on matched betting and acca offers especially. Its been very educational but I do have a question that I wanted to ask.
I understand that most of you are here for the RISK FREE aspect of making money and not necessarily maximizing EV which I understand from a bankroll management perspective. My question is simply: cant I just set up accumulator bets across all sites that offer this for the max amount possible and for the max number of possible refunds without spending an exorbitant amount of time figuring out lay odds and hedge every possible outcome in order to get the same profit regardless of outcome?
I mean i play poker for a living and i am perfectly happy getting my AAxx allin preflop for my entire stack even for a 55 45 or less coin toss.
thank you to everyone who contributes to this site and MarkCorrigan in particular for some great insights.
+0@MarkCorrigan, How much do you think you’ll need for doing the accas this way then?
I did an acca for the first time yesterday and this happened:
Leg 1 : Benin @ 1.28 WIN
Leg 2 : Valencia Feminas CF @ 1.35 WIN
Leg 3 : Gimnastica de Torrelavega @ 1.25 WIN
Leg 4 : Bahia BA @ 1.22 WIN
Leg 5 : Portuguesa SP @ 1.44 LOST
Leg 6 : Wales @ 6 NOT DECIDED YETThe first 5 were yesterday’s games. The last leg is today’s game. Can I save some of my stake (€10) here?
+0@the_don, I only win if Wales win. Then I get €10 as a freebet (~€8). So my return is €8 and my stake at this moment is €8/6.0 = €1.34. The lay odds as of this moment is shitty 7.8. I have to lay €1.03 and will have a guarantee loss of -€0.30 for both sides. I’ll save about €1 on this but lose €9 in total.
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@omahaplyr1, In a word, yes. There’s obviously nothing wrong with simply betting the accumulators and not laying… Just be wary of the variance involved (especially if you repeat the same accumulators across all sites). It’s not quite as good as getting aces in pre, unfortunately! The other thing to consider is you’re limited to one acca per day – imagine only playing 365 hands per year. Finally, it may seem like a hassle (and suboptimal) to lay the accumulators to guarantee profit, but if you have a big enough bankroll to use the offers on all sites, then you can simply repeat the same selections and it becomes far easier.
@the_don, I think you can probably lay around £1 on Wales @ 7.8. Basically, the value of your bet is now £1 ish. For the future, I’d try to find more suitable selections. If the first 5 legs you chose were the true odds (which they weren’t), and if you include Wales at 6 / 7.8, your bet is actually negative EV.+0
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