Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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I’m still fairly new to doing Acca’s and would appreciate help finding where did I make a mistake:
https://imgur.com/lrNxFMhThe calculation is to break even if I lose along the way.
So before the last game I lost £199.80 on liabilities and my potential book profit (including 10% bonus) is £216.43 meaning I was looking at making a loss no matter the outcome of the last game (ended up gambling and waiting for Barca to be 2:1 up with minutes to go before laying at 1.06).Some odds have drifted (Gent, Dortmund) but they’re still showing as E/V positive. So where did it go wrong?
If someone could pluck the numbers into their spreadsheet and tell me if they’re getting the same numbers (especially E/V) that would be great.
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You were laying too much. If all the legs won as you show, the optimal laying stakes to guarantee a profit were:
1. £49.62
2. £66.88
3. £79.23
4. £110.17
5. £149.12
6. £183.00This would have guaranteed you a profit of £8.92.
EDIT: It was pretty risky of you to not take the loss on your final leg (OK, it turned out fine). You know you effectively had a £200 bet on Barcelona?
+0Thanks for that. For some reason it got stuck in my head that if I’m breaking even if one bet loses I should arrive in the later stages with profit, forgot that the value here is in that free bet…
I know it was stupid and could have lost £200, just couldn’t get myself to lay pre-match for a loss of £25. Thought I’ll wait and see if they score early but Sevilla scored first so it got a lot worse:) Ended up watching the game, pissing my pants and getting a nice adrenaline rush… Not recommended!
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_1c1gkaAXEu6JDt2q2tjY1iVAXmHWRtptE-Rkw3M-40
Note that the bonus cell refers to bonus on winnings – ie entering 10% means a win at 3/1 (4.0) pays at 3.3/1 (4.3) NOT 4.4 – in line with the Will Hill promotion.
The reason for entering the amount laid in the Confirm Stake column after laying each leg is so that the file will recalculate future optimal lay stakes for equal profit if you update the exchange odds later on. If not a new lay stake will be calculated for past legs.
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Excellent work! Thanks very much. Will have a proper look this evening.
+0thanks for this Jez
Would it be possible to alter this to cover 6 legs?
I’ve been trying to change Sams to cover 6 I’ve made an error somewhere 🙁
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Yes you can alter it however you please, and adopt the same method for accumulators of any length
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I’ve just looked at the look up table and final outcomes this is gonna be tough for a clown like me lol
Would I need to start in the look up table in the laystake column with wwwww and then all the ones with just one loss
sorry if its a daft question
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It’s not daft, it’s never going to easy to interpret someone else’s formulae or method when any level of complexity is involved. You are correct that the table must consider all the additional permutations due to the 6th leg in the acca. If you are looking to make your own tools for accas I suggest starting with the ‘tree’ layout as seen in Sam’s sheet – I don’t use that layout in mine as I prefer it to be consise/compact, but the full tree certainly makes it easier to ‘see’ where every value is coming from.
I may still create a free site for 4,5,6+ leg accas, sequential lays etc but I’m still learning the basics on web design so won’t be particularly soon.
+0After seeing Sams Sheet I tried to convert it to 6 legs today not sure where I went wrong but something wasn’t correct 🙂 The profit wasnt evenly spread
I’ve just started with yours doing a new table to work with 6 legs that will keep me busy 🙂
I may have some questions if i get stuck hope you dont mind
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Nice one Jez – thank you kindly. It’s protected though, so not sure how madgolfer is able to see the lookup tables, or adapt it?
+0How do you modify a reply.
Is the option available to everyone.+0
No, Patrick – only available to those that can see and click the Edit button above and to the right of their post 😉
Edit – see 🙂
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Thanks for sharing everyone. What acca offers are people using currently? All I can find is William Hill and Coral (6+) and Paddy who have gubbed me…I’m looking for a 5 leg acca to begin with
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Drogs – bet victor do 5 folds up to £25. Theres also 10 bet but their odds are well off.
I think maybe ladbrokes do it as well? Like you mate Im gubbed from most but gonna do one on betvictor tomorrow, u can also do tennis.+0
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