Aintree Festival – Day 1
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Just because we always do.
Not actually much decent around today, the 4.05 and 4.40 may be good for extra places. Usually would go in all guns blazing on that 4.40 but its risky.
+0April 12, 2018 at 8:55 am
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Some good enhanced terms on bet365, throwing up some arbs. But some very risky with 8 runners.
How is the weather?
Anyway bet365 will probably go price promise after 10. So if you get a max stake now and price promise forces them to change the price then you can have another max stake at new price after.
Restrictions are okay up and down depending on the horse though. Gave me very little on Lami Serge but were a bit more generous on Cyrus Darius in the same race.
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I notice they have their own version of each way edge now, where you can choose the place terms. Much better than Betfair though as its 1/4 odds.
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The 4.05 for example you can get 1/4 odds on 10 places.
They basically print money.
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Wow that is a lot of options!
Huge drop from 5/1 to 5/2 for the 10 ew price. I wonder if it’s a gimmick or any real value there. I thought the betfair ew edge was a gimmick at first but boy I was wrong.
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Granted the price drop is huge but if you playing around with unlayed small stakes its worth a gamble on the big races.
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I’ve stuck £50 in to my old gubbed and restricted account, going to play with this and see what balance is by end of the day.
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Just looking at Balnaslow as an example just the first one I saw.
Back 3.5/6.4.
You can lay on 4tbp is 1.63/2.0.
At a tenner ew it is a QL of £6.42 for a chance at hitting 5,6,7,8,9 or 10 and your profit would be £9.84 if you did hit.
It’s effective odds of 1.5. But at evens on exchange to finish top 4 you have to believe that places 5-10 is longer than evens and def not as short as 1.5….
Need to fish around for the sweet spot. On bf ew edge the sweet spot was 16 horse handicaps and edging to reduce the places.
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And non runners? Do you keep your ew extra price (minus a rule 4) if the standard terms are reduced are the extra terms reduced.
Balnaslow at 7.0 for two places would be good if 2 places were reduced to win only. Then you have a 7.0/6.4 arb if you want to bet on there being non runners.
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Freds/Tote boosted Apples Shakira to 3.25
Decent if you can get £100 on both and underlay at 3.0
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“Each Way Extra bets are considered an offset to standard Each Way terms. In the event of non-runners, if the standard Each Way terms change, then the Each Way Extra terms will also change accordingly (including changes to the number of places available and/or the market place fraction).”
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So yeah just stick to the big races FoG. Get 3 or 4 covered for 10 places, you’d have to be seriously unlucky not to hit something.
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Cheers FOG, I was testing that today, with a couple of bets reduced to 2 places where there are 8/16 runners…
Sounds good, probably value on my gubbed/resticted account in (selectively) spam betting 8 and 16 horse races with places reduced to 2 the night before.
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Bristol de Mai for ew extra 2 places.
7.0/6.4
2.5/probably fall somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0Might be a bit of value in that and you will be covered then if there is a non runner.
+0Aintree normally quite good for High5 with the long run in IIRC.
Picking the winner slightly more difficult.
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Yeah and Hills boost on every ITV race helps too. Already got Apples Shakira boosted to 3.15
I’m still getting 100% cashout options with them too so dont lay until the lay odds come crashing in otherwise just cashout.
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