Betfair – double winning on correct score

Wow benfica 2-2!! wouldn’t have thought that would be the game to be a draw..hope it stays that way!

Did them both twice so would really help the profit for missing out on the Utd score, and besides I did my bet victor on bayern/athletic so really don’t wana rollover the winnings either!

Thank god there was at least one draw tonight, didn’t expect it to be in that match but ah love that betstars offer!

This is a slightly amended version of a comment I made on the blog but I thought people reading this thread might be interested in my approach to these which is both risk free and guaranteed profit (unless I’ve missed something glaringly obvious).

The way I play these is to back 1-0 with Betfair then back Over 0.5 goals in the first half so that the winnings cover my Betfair stake and a little more as an insurance bet. Betbright is a good place for the insurance bet but I round it up to the next £5 to give a little guaranteed profit and so it looks less like a matched bet (normally around £30 at 1.4).

If the team I backed scores first and in the first half then my insurance bet kicks in and I cash in my Betfair bet for a good profit because the current score is the one I backed (around £20 across the two bets depending when they score). Alternative strategies are to lay 1-0 on smarkets (if that is profitable) or let it run until you get a more profitable situation (if another goal goes in then you’d still profit from the insurance bet).

If the other team scores first in the first half then my insurance bet covers the loss on Betfair (plus £1 to £2 profit).

If it’s 0-0 at half-time then I lay 1-0 on smarkets using enhanced odds to allow for the loss on the insurance bet and the potential free bet from Betfair. Normally get about £10 to £15 profit in this case. To calculate the enhanced odds- if the back odds for 1-0 were 11.0 and I staked £30 with Betbright as insurance then the enhanced odds are:
Initial back odds + enhanced odds from double profits (including 80% extraction) – odds to account for insurance bet loss
11.0 + (0.8 * 10) – (30 / 10) = 16.0

For comparison, the lay odds for a 1-0 correct score when the match is 0-0 at half time are around 6.5 to 7.0

Basically, using this strategy then the profit is good when the team I’ve chosen scores first (and in the first half) or the game is 0-0 at half time. If the other team scores first in the first half then profit is around £1 or £2.

This isn’t right. If its 0-0 at ht you’re in for £40. To make a £15 profit you would have to lay 0-0 for £55. At 7.0 in your example would leave £330 liability.

You are taking off the £30 in the potential 1-0 winnings in your calculations but if it doesn’t finish 1-0 you would be at a loss.

Ahh. If only Kane didn’t score in the first half 🙁 went 0-3

I know, if Kane hadn’t scored it would’ve been 0-0 at HT then the 3 goals in the seconds half. I understand what I’m saying haha, even if everybody else doesn’t.

Mark – what score have you gone for? What back odds did you get?