BetVictor – NBA trebles

  • I think I mentioned these before.

    Don’t bother trying to matched bet them. Just take as a value punt.

    It is money back as a free bet if only one leg of a treble lets you down. It’s only £10 bet and always short favourites available so you can easily build a treble that will win almost 50% of the time. Variance won’t kill you.

    They have it for NFL too but NBA is on every day of the week so this is something you can average out £2 to £3 profit per day all month long (£60 to £90 total for the month) by just quickly picking the three top favourites for the night. If you’re into NBA it adds a bit of fun to watching the games for little cost and more than likely long term profit.

    I have a treble for tonight and calculating the odds I have 46% chance I win, 40% chance I get the refund – you’ll be losing your full stake very rarely.

    Also it will help you accumulate 2 or 3 extra guesses at their golden goal competition.

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    Mooncat 1

    I’ll take a look, thanks for posting.

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    sleepless 12

    Hi Fog.
    Giving this a try. What is best way to bet the FB if stake returned.

    Thanks in advance.

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    Mooncat 1

    The stake refund can only be used on another NBA treble. Same goes for the NFL offer.

    Fog, was that always the case, or a recent change by BV, like the changes to the terms of the their football acca insurance offer?

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    sleepless 12

    I see it’s on NBA.
    Should the FB be on the best odds without a lay, or a long shot with a lay?

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    I’m not laying anything on this. Just checking exchange for where the value is.

    Mooncat it was always that way.

    For free bet I will just pick a treble where total odds are about 7/1.

    I just think that there is a lot of value in this offer but they have made it really really awkward to get good qualifying bet or free bet extraction for small stakes.

    But if you do the numbers you can match bet this offer to return £3 from £10 stake. But it’s way too much hassle for just £3. Still it’s the biggest return on investment that I can see across all the current offers around.

    So I’m taking a chance and given that the stakes are low and odds are short I’m happy to.

    I think without matched betting it you will still see about the same return but more erratic (losing streak then a winning streak but over all average should be up by about the same £3 for every £10 staked). You might even get a higher return since no commission and no losing at the exchange.

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    Big Mick 0

    What are your thoughts on this offer’s NFL shaped brother, FoG? Odds aren’t quite as short…but from my calculations there still may be an 8-12% return in the long run? (even if it is just once a week unlike NBA)

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Yep I like it big mick. Don’t think the odds are as good in general but still profitable. Also love the red zone program on sky mix … It’s a bit like those shows on sky and bt sport where you watch the pundits watch the games, but with red zone you actually watch it too!

    Also something new I never knew before. An NFL game CAN end in a tie!

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    sleepless 12

    Fog – great tip mate. Thanks a lot.
    Tried it 4 times on best lowest odds to highest.
    Won about £6 a time. Probably get gubbed if I don’t lose one!.

    Might also try the other basketball competitions – no FB insurance though

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Nah sleepless.

    Stick to the NBA, stick to the offer. If you go on an unlucky run and you’re not picking up the consolation free bets then it will wipe you out.

    You’ll eventually about break even or a small loss on the real money bets, the long term profit is going to be coming from the free bets.

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    sleepless 12

    ok thanks Fog I’ll take your advice and keep going till I lose. Not sure how to play the FB as I’ve not had one. Betting the best 3 high to low odds is giving me 60%+ return.

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Well if I had a free treble tonight would probably go Pacers/Magic/Rockets. Combined back odds are 7.97 and combined lay odds are 9.99. So its probably worth about 70% of your free bet long term. I’m kind of looking for something about 7/1 and picking the matches with the closest odds bookie vs exchange (this represents the best value in my mind).

    So what I have done to come up with those 3 is usually the short odds fav are tightest and best value so I put the two shortest in and then just threw in a long shot to up the payout of the free bet to make it worth it.

    If I actually had a free bet I would probably wait to closer to see if the exchange/bookie odds tighten up and spend a little more time playing around to up the extraction to maybe 75% or 80%. But just gave a quick example there on how easy it should be to get about 70%.

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    sleepless 12

    so you do lay the FB – I misunderstood your previous posts thinking you didn’t lay anything.

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    FoG_BLoG 61

    Nope I don’t lay it! Sorry I am causing confusion.

    I look at the lay prices just as an indication of where the value is but I don’t actually lay.

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    sleepless 12

    ok I’ll revisit when I have a FB.

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    sub_tone 0

    Sorry to see this beaut of an offer drop off my Offers page………

    Anyone else noticed its disappeared?

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