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Horse Racing (15th Feb)

  • Paddy power – Money Back 2nd to SP fav
    Wolves all races – I would give it a miss. No value on any of the races there today in my opinion.

    Will Hill – Money Back 2nd
    Wolves 2:20 – 12 runners 3/1, 4/1, 7/1, 15/2, 8/1+ the rest – worth playing one of the favs imo.
    Catterick 4:10 – 10 runners a bit more open than the other will hill race, but still worth playing one of the favs imo.

    B365 – Free bet for 4/1+ winners
    Wolves 2:20, 4:50
    By very definition of the offer it is hard to get a free bet out of this one – at best a 4/1+ chance (<20%)! So looking for tight odds. Mr Christopher is 5.0/6.2 at the moment in the first. Miss Minutey is 6.5/7.2. So not very many options there at the moment but worth keeping an eye closer to the race.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG
    61
    February 15, 2016 at 11:48 am

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    Dbb 4 February 15, 2016 at 12:18 pm

    don’t usually do much of the horses but i’m off work this week.

    Stuck some back and lays on the Wolverhampton races this morning when I found good qualifying losses, some will probably end up the SP fav though, partly just trying to get some money back into the exchange after 2 paddys wins yesterday.

    I have
    pancake day at the 13:50
    mercury at the 14:20
    pass the time at the 15:20
    elysian prince at the 16:50

    got them all in for less than £2.50 qualifying loss in total

    +0
    Tony 18 February 15, 2016 at 12:52 pm

    Hills only here.

    Another Hero for me in the 16:10 at Catterick, nice cheap qualifier too :)

    Still undecided on the 14:20 at Wolverhampton, but probably Mr Christopher I think

    +0
    Chris 24 February 15, 2016 at 12:54 pm

    Still dont really understand how you define value Fog. If you mean in terms of chances then the 4.20 and 4.50 are decent as the fields are smallish and the favourites are good. If you mean in terms of qualifying losses then Dance of Fire is 4.33/4.7 for the 4.20 and Miss Minuty is 6/5.9 for the 4.50 making the cost of going for these two races minimal.

    When theres potentially £50 in free bets on offer for the cost of £2 then of course there is “value”.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 15, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    I mean value in terms of chances of getting a free bet. I figure it out based on the W/O and if its less than 20% likely I pass :)

    If you can get them cheap though then you can make your own value. I’m giving it a miss though for today anyway.

    Be careful of the 14:50, not sure which if either is going to go off as favourite. Actually if you are on Miss Minutey it works out good if the joint favourties go off joint favourite, so she can be 2nd to either.

    Good luck!

    +0
    Pickle 64 February 15, 2016 at 1:24 pm

    A lot of these races would you not just be as well putting a quid or two on the straight forecast?

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 15, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    But that’s just gambling Pickle and I’m sure the bookie have their cut built into the prices – to guarantee the punters a long term loss.

    +0
    Pickle 64 February 15, 2016 at 1:45 pm

    Yeah i know its just gambling but if theres no close matches and it isnt a short price favourite id just leave it alone. In those circumstances people are gambling a couple of quid to get a free bet when theyd prob be better off gambling the same ammount on the SF.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 15, 2016 at 2:09 pm

    tony. Another Hero is a non runner there now on the Will Hill offer.

    +0
    LJH 2 February 15, 2016 at 2:24 pm

    ergh… Mr Christopher, so close..

    +0
    Pickle 64 February 15, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    Ah shit. Our little sister came into 5.3. In space of 20 seconds to back it @ 5.0 its gone out to 7 LOL

    +0
    Tony 18 February 15, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    Thank you FoG – would not have noticed if you had not mentioned it :)

    Anyone know whether I will get the free bet if I back another horse at Hills now? Obviously I don;t want to ask them on Live Chat!! TIA

    +0
    LJH 2 February 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm

    I don’t read anywhere in there T&Cs that states only the first bet is eligible for 2nd place refund.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 February 15, 2016 at 3:39 pm

    Well it says….

    “In the instance where multiple bets are placed on the same race and/or selection within a race, only the first bet placed counts towards this offer.”

    I had Another Hero too and switched to the favourite. I hope another hero doesnt count any more since he is a non runner.

    I’ll let you know if a get a free bet if my guy goes second.

    Im starting to like Will Hill, get useful notification on my phone when my horse is a non runner.

    +0
    LJH 2 February 15, 2016 at 3:54 pm

    Picked 2 winners on PP today… I need to stop laying these offers :(

    +0
    Tony 18 February 15, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    I’ve backed another one anyway FoG, minimal quali loss so nowt lost if they don’t refund it due to non-runner. We shall see

    +0
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