Horse racing (18th Feb)

Black warrior clonmel at 2pm is worth a go. Keep qualifying losses less than 4 or 5. The lower the better!

Not so sure Daniel. He looks good on the bookie at 11/2 but the market has no confidence in him. He is still 13/1!!!!!

Huge gap.

Could this be a consequence of black warrior being a non runner? Ppl that had a lay in there for get out of jail didn’t have enough time to cancel it?

Should we back him on the exchange?

Ah. I see what is happening with Get out of Jail in Clonmel at 2:00.

He is 6/1 at the bookie and 14/1 on the exchanges.

The problem paddy power have is that if they put him up to a fair price like even 12/1 then on an e/w bet they are paying out 3/1 on the e/w part. But to place on the exchange markets his price is 1.88 (less than evens) so paddy power would be stupid to put him any higher than they have him or ppl could take advantage of a generous e/w price.

Its just because there is one huge favourite.

So the 14/1 isn’t generous in particular – its his fair market value – and the 6/1 is really a very bad price but paddy are forced into this because of how the e/w works.

Not sure what this means for matched betting. He is a about a 50/50 chance to deliver the free bet – but will cost way to much to just back and lay him.

I think there is nothing here for matched betters, and no value for just plain gamblers.