Monday horse racing offers!

Was definitely worth it. Good when things go to plan.

The qualifying loss if £5+ didn’t made me particularly comfortable… plus I have a history of picking winners in markets like this :s

That’s fair enough. But you can’t just look at the qualifying loss, you have to look at the chances of finishing 2nd to SP as well.

For example the next race at 15:00. The fav is 9/4 and say the second fav is 10/3. So the chance of the favourite winning is about 25% and then there are three or four other horses that would fancy coming 2nd – so IF the favourite wins our guy has only a 25% chance of coming 2nd. So combined a 6.25% chance of being 2nd to the SP favourite. You’ll only be getting money back about 1 in 20 races. And the chances get worse if you pick a horse with even longer odds.

There’s two things – 1. keep the qualifying bet cost down, 2. keep the chance of 2nd to SP up.

You got to be able to understand and estimate both – otherwise you could be losing £1 or £2 per race for very little chance of getting a free bet.

Then it becomes pure gambling and not matched betting – and worse its gambling where there is poor value.

Matt recommends to leave this offer alone in his strategy.

Thanks FOG, and yes I have only been doing races with a clear FAV and no more than 2 other real contenders lately. But even in ideal fields like this, I have a worrying tendency of picking either the winner or the runner-up to some random donkey came out of nowhere.
Guess I am just catastrophically unlucky :(

Jonny delta (365) and lady clitico (WH) fingers crossed

Thank you Jonny Delta :D

Total guesswork, as I only had 2 minutes between meetings, but that’ll do nicely – immediately recovers last night’s SuperBowl fiasco, haha!