Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
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Posting here, daily whenever possible, naps I spot when they are each way arbing throughout the day. With ranking system from 1-5 stars.
Feel free to post anything on this thread regarding them/queries👍+3October 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm
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A great start since starting to record in more detail my own EW arbs/naps just over 10 days ago. Have been posting up excellent arbs as they happen throughout the day when ive spotted them in my daily raids in the bookies for about a year and a half now, and decided I would document them to see how they permorm👍
Here are the opening 38 Naps (I removed nap 39 even though it was a 40/1 3rd as It was posted too late-5 mins before off) all naps posted with price quoted still available in my shops or on odds checker/online bookies and posted up at the very latest a few minutes before bookies went to show prices (normally show prices are 10 minutes before due race time)…..
As im busy around race start time myself, getting bets/lays done – it has been difficult to recored all exchange win/places at time off. So I will be taking there Sps to make comparisions to the prices taken early and coming up with an idea of profiits made thus far👍+0
Scabbas Bad Each Way Naps
Bet size is always €50 EWay ( to simplify things) When SP is higher (very few! BOG is factored in)
Am basing this table on the simplest way to break down and that is laying nothing off. How anyone decides to break this down ie lay win and place early/late- lay win early lay place late or lay win early let place run I think its clear to see so far very big profits are to be had so far on these naps👍 The huge/big difference between nap price and SP is overall so vast that its clear you will be winning big whichever way you play em.I think only 3/38 went over higher than price Napped. No race has gone below the minimum runners required for respective ew runners for particular type of eway race or each respective firms minimum runners for extra places to stand.2/10.540 Kempton . Cindy Bear 25/1- SP 12/1.6th. -€100
2/10.215 Bangor. Bye Nevin 7/1- SP 15/2. 3rd .+50
2/10.215 Bangor Fort de Luegan 12/1- SP 8/1-7th. -€100
2/10.215 Bangor Catch Me If You Can 100/1 – SP 33/1-4th. -€100
2/10.540 Kempton. Glamores Ana 22/1- SP 11/1-3rd
+170
3/10.245 Lingfield Alamha 6/1- SP 5/1-3rd +€10
3/10.600 Chelmsford. Jochi Khan 16/1 (4 place race Ladbrokes) SP 10/1- 5th. -€100
5/10.525 Gowran Park. Advantage Point 9/4-SP 15/8-UR. -€100
5/10.435 Newcadtle Oh Its Saucepot 9/2 (4 Place Race PPower) SP 4/1-5th. -€100
5/10.310 Ascot Cassonova 17/2. (5 place race PPower) SP 6/1 -5th. +50
6/10.145 Kelso. Kingrulliah 10/1- SP 10/1- 3rd +€50
6/10.505 Longchamp Glorious Journey 17/2- SP 5/1-9th. -€100
6/10.445 Utoxetter The Juggilust 66/1 – SP 33/1- 6th. -€100
7/10.450 Stratford. Witness Protection 7/1-SP 6/1-4th. -€100
8/10.810 Chelmsford Percy Toplis 20/1 (PPower 4 Place Race) SP 14/1-9th. -€100
8/10.710 Chelmsford. Malikia Javan 9/2- SP 4/1-5th. -€100
8/10 710 Chelmsford. Exmoor Beast 50/1- SP 14/1-2nd. +€450
8/10.710 Chelmsford. Aubrita 20/1- SP 14/1-3rd. +150
8/10.510 Chelmsford. Falacho 66/1- SP 25/1-3rd. +€560
10/10.205 Thules. Legal Thriller 20/1-SP 10/1-6th.
-€100
10/10.600 Kempton. Well Prepared 3/1- SP 3/1-3rd.
-€20
10/10.530 Kempton. Tidal Racer 33/1-SP 20/1- 6th.
-€100
10/10.545 Southwell. Quaint 8/1- SP 11/2-3rd. +£60
10/10.545 Southwell The Grey Bay 80/1- SP 16/1-5th
-£100
11/10.335 York Moon King 10/1 (5 place race) 7/1-6th. -€100
11/10.335 York Future Investment 16/1 (5 place race) SP 7/— 4th. +£110
12:10.330 Newmarket. Positive 18/1- SP 8/1-4th. -€100
12/10.330 Newmarket. Mystery Power 40/1- SP 20/1-7th. -€100
12/10.410 Newmarket. Stratum 33/1 (7 place race Ladbrokes) SP 25/1-1st. +£1980
12/10.410 Newmarket. Eddystone Rock 33/1 (7 place race Ladbrokes) SP 33/1-17th. -€100
12/10.Ice Age 33/1 (5 place race) SP 25/1-8th. -€100Todays 13/10 to follow.
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Continued
14/10. 205 Gowran Park. Blackcatblackitten 16/1- SP 12/1-7th. -€100
14/10. 315 Yarmouth. London 66/1- SP 18/1- 8th. -€100
14/10. 315 Yarmouth. Naizogai 14/1 — SP 8/1-3rd. +£90
14/10. 520 Gowran Park. Universal Focus 25/1 (PPower 4 place race) SP -6/1-10th. -€100
14/10 520 Gowran Park. Liars Corner 33/1 (PPower 4 place race) SP 16/1-2nd. +28038 Naps only 1 winner! A 33/1 shot. But overall if betting €50 each way on all with no lay
Outlay €3800
Profit €1990👍If laying all the wins of them and letting the places run – then something very simalar in returns. Perhaps €100 either side of the profits.
Incredible atm with roughly 50 R.O.I.
Alterentive laying methods I cant estimate that closely. But I do estimate profits are very big which ever way anyone followed them!
The train will roll on- so far a long way above my own expected plus 20-30 % RO.I. But this is the first time ive made a detailed book on all the eways ive done- so perhaps its possible to keep near this amazing R.O.I. We shall certainly see👍
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Some of these naps I couldnt get on myself as all my bets are in shops and a fair few of the naps best prices were only avaiable in major online firms such ad 365/hills/coral/bvictor etc But due to my own stakes normally being in excess -whenever pissible- of over €100 eway-Ive made over €2500 on these Naps in the 10 days or so they have been going Also made more on some other each ways i had no time to post and my usual daily battering of the boyle/pp/lads mb races and sports offers. So has been a fantastic couple of weeks in the field.. hopefully many others have had a great couple of weeks getting on any of these naps and their own value spots👍
Till tomorrow..+0For reasons I’ve posted in the past I’m never going to be for such a spoon feeding approach (but here isn’t the bigger problem now)…… but comparing urself to ISP on bad each way races? You’re better than that, plug in no lay numbers or BFSP numbers to give a true return if you’re going to do this. If the aim is to port your user base from here to a subscription tipping service as u suggested previously then I’d suggest using no lay results- u want to appeal to normal punters to to gain more revenue
With the luxury of early morning prices and BOG a blindfolded monkey has a fair chance of returning profit (ie the average online tipster approach), throw in bad each way race characteristics and your personal experience/skill picking horses then yes you’ll get a more than decent ROI
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Cheers Betman. Yeah the SP prices were just used as a rough guide to how prices in the vast majority of cases went off way lower than EP. BOG actually only had any use in 1 race out of the 38 so far. I know the lay all late tactic which i use myself and have monitored on just about all these races is well in excess of over €1k profit so far. One day alone which where the BFSp was posted (I wasnt in betting shops that day at time for once !)had profits approaching €650 on the €50 eways. So maybe the big 50% isnt to far far off- whatever all the final BFSPs were- its certainly above 30% (my own target)
So it would be pretty clear so far whichever way figures are broken down profits so far would be well
over €1000 from the suggested €3800 outlay👍 And for those SP figures to have shown such huge profits considering they are so high when the actual winners odds are showing a loss (€1900-€1650)Weather its 50% ROI or closer to 30% ROi – results sre flipping marvelous👍
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The majority of these tips/naps dont come in the morning when as you say most people can simply flick through odds checker and a few obvious value races They have come in as and when they have happened throughout the day- many in the 20 minutes or so before race time as the markets start to move more. When my own vast experience and dillegence in knowing what races and when to be monitoring them , thismeans I will spot them quickly.
This is where I know my future service will be of great value to people without the amount of know how/and of course the time to spot them- for mostly they will be at work and a quick message to their device will give them a chance in many cases to log on and get the value arbs on. Additionally texts are sent during the day advising which races have potential/times naps may come in . so as to give more ease to people in having there online accounts logged in and ready to get the bets on quicker and easier.
So far I have a handfull of people -through word of mouth/friends -for whom I have running this ‘serviice’ .And so far its been going incredibly well (obviously as all the Scabba Naps have been sent to them, and a few more)As I mentioned on a post in other thread I go away to South America in December. So as I will be away from any bookie action myself (will be starting online accounts for as many of misses family as possible though😀) I want to keep busy amd earn enough to keep ticking along- So hope to add to the few people already on board with the Bad EWay tipping service and give myself motivation every day ( the ideal plan is to build up to no more than about 20-25 people on board as this should generate enough living exspenses and not be too crazy a number to completey hammer the same horse at simalar times🤔)
With results even 20% as good as the onesso far I know Id sign up for a small fee if it was me looking around to add some money to my weekly day job😀We shall see👍
On a negative I looked last night and was very uninspired by todays offerings🙃 but shall be scanning the markets/betting shops very shortly👍
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This was all just an idea that came up a month or so ago, I had been texting a friend whenever I saw value shots – he was so exited by the profits he was making that he got 3/4 if his friends to joun the party and so the idea evolved (embryonic stages stages still) It also coincides with my upcoming 3 months in exile (South America) in December..
It dawned on me that I’ve been posting value/info and above all good ew arbs for well over a year now, for nothing other than wanting my fellow mbs to cash in whenever possible. Id would go as far to say- without blowing my own🎺 too much!- that I have been by far the most useful poster on this site in that time (yes a lot of rambles in there also🙃)But i dont want regulars on this beloved site to think I’m trying to garner them into signing up to me to get some dosh off them. Ive been very happy to post free info as part of my love of seeing bookies get hammered for ages! – this has been a passion of mine since a family member got pretty much destroyed by the greed of bookies a few years ago with their crack gambling machines and persistent carrot emails when people stop for a while- but thats another slightly longwinded story)
More than anything I wish to use this recent Scabba naps Idea as an easier way for any potential subscribers to peruse a structerd list of past performances that my upcoming website/page will advertise. Also great that for any future Columbo types they will also be able to -if they wish -trawl through over a years worth of posts to see that im the real deal and offering something with excellent value.
If nothing much comes of this idea of mine (i think it will) then at least this surge of value arbs/naps ive been posting has surely put some extra dosh in a good few people on heres pockets..and that alone for me will have justified all this addiitional effort ive been putting in lately👍
+1Useful post and I appreciate your input Scab
Biggest problem you will face with subscribers is bookie longevity – everyone knows B365 offer insane value on so many bad EW and ITV feature races but good luck maintaining decent stakes. What will subscribers do when they cant get sizeable stakes on at any bookies offering respectable stakes? Many people arent willing to put the effort / take the risk of multi accounting
I agree with Betman that comparing to industry SP is misleading – the loss of value when bookies change to ISP can be 20 – 40% on every bad EW race. If you added a tab comparing to the each way tab (back bet) on BetFair exchange and could consistently beat that by a sizeable margin, thats a better metric
It does make me want to experiment more however. Maybe backing early, laying all wins ~15 before the off and letting the place run unlayed every time would be worth a long trial period. I might do this. Although I’m not sure if not laying the place in an extra place race is better long-term value. Commission is always a negative and sometimes there’s poor liquidity, but then laying lets you hit the extra place for more profit
I dont hit bookies full time like you so my no. of bets per month is significantly smaller than yours so I would have to endure more variance.
Pure conjecture but I wish we knew how much traffic this forum and the bad EW thread gets. Maybe you should post a few Naps and track whether the market reacts at all – i suspect nothing significant
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Will read these long posts more clearly later👍 But dint understand why so much regarding the sps. The sps have nothing to do with profits made on the naps. Just the price they went off at- the profits quoted on the naps is what they made by simply not laying anything or just laying the win. It dosnt take a rocket scientist to see the gulf in the prices taken and the sps simply as an indicator. I know longshots get trimmed heavilly most out the time at show price time , but for only 1 nap out of 38 to go off higher than price taken shows clearly that most prices were taken at the right timing- ie as the market started to move.
Im sure people will be well aware that accounts get restricted when ew arbing and advice will be offered what firms to go with on the times there are alternituve firms to the more solid/consistent high price firms like 365 etc even when a lesser firm is offering a shorter value price than the top price offered will be quited if that is also a value ew arb.
People can pick and choose which arbs/naps they take based on how much they value preserving any particular website.
I dont see why there is even any discussion about the value/merits of such a subscibtion/service for even if my ROI dropped right down to 20%- sinply backing just 1! Nap a week! At €50 eway would cover any subscribtion. And only an idiot could fail to see that even picking and choosing from the rough estimate of about 20 value naps per week (based on 1st 2 weeks or so of data) and placing stakes that one wants- one is going to place eniugh bets to make a very good profit- How ever selective one is.
Believe me when I say that any service going even bear to 20% ROI let alone over and beyond is like gold dust and very rare. No sports tipping service i have ever analyised has ever produced results in exceess of about 10% .Even in ny early years as an online poker player years ago (when it was full iif americans and fish) A 20 % ROI multi tabling sngs/mtts was amoungst the best (I should know I made a living at it for 10 years)
So in summary if I can offer over 20% ROI (certainly have so far) then the potential of rhis service can not be sneezed at in any way👍 More to the contary ,should be held up as almost as good as it gets in this game.
Ive lived off sharbing/bad eways for the last 18 months or so , and including 5 months of in holidays(where very little was earnt-only spent) in that time and including a lot of excessive spending am currently €45 k in savings ahead of where i was at the start. so perhaps I have a good idea as most/any what is good value and what is not🤔
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Biggest rambling day ever today- made easier by the fact there has been next to nothing on the ew value front. So a bit of mb2/ mb2 bigger price hunting which is very boring compared to whacking on bad ews🙃
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Im sure those long posts by you guys were contrustive. Just glanced at some snippets of negativity and went off a long winded ramble or two👍
+0Its cool. I dont mind your naps as long as you post them after I’ve taken a bet on that horse lol
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Sounds like you are on the ball all day also Enigma. Most of my naps have been posted 5 minutes after ive spotted them myself- giving me time to get as much on as poss – if I can get on 😄and leave a few mins for the few people I text atm to get on . Then if they are still available/arbing I post em👍 Hopefully this window has left plenty of time for on the ball types to have already spotted them and loaded up👍
There have been a good few naps/arbs I have spotted and got on myself disappear by the time Im about to post em. Have been very carefull not to post any where the price had gone.
Was busy today and didnt think there were many value chances around- but the 210 Huntingdon and a couple of surprise value shots in a couple of races at Punchestown did throw up some value shots- mainly close to show price time. But they went very quickly and I had no time to post up – small arbs only.
Tomorrow,- after having a brief look – should be better, and I should be back napping again😄 so be sharp Enigma/anyone else – as I will only wait 5 mins or so from spot to post😀
+0Regarding volumes and traffic read beestys original post from the beginning on this.
If all to be believed he was getting big stakes on eway bets and only concern bookies had was if he was problem gambling. We all know how quick they are to restrict now with lesser stakes on same bets.
I think at its peak there would been noticable amounts of money into the market from stuff here. But to a degree the horse has bolted. Theres already a wannabe subscription service from one group, and the oddsmonkey threads contain handed down myths and preconceptions that were sometimes bounded around here. Which is why I’m against spoon feeding, sharing how with others that return or races/horses is one thing but if 100 people place the same bet as u soon after it helps no1 long term. (not that I think 100 would at current traffic but u get what I mean). That said the dumbness of the other wannabe tipping service (tweeting bookies what they do) and volumes of oddsmonkey will cause far more damage than this place is likely to again!!
Regarding ROI with BOG, best bookies and selective tipping u should easily clear 20% over time. I reckon on a 10% ROI but I often dont get best pricing, rarely get BOG and have to balance trying to get enough volume of bets on to make it worthwhile…. so my 10th choice pick of the day would logically be lower.
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