Skybet money back 2nd Wednesday 3rd Feb 1.10 Ludlow
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only 2nd place, 7 horses . got 1.83 and 1.86 on the Fav for a 99 p loss. Currently 1.87 on the exchange
+0February 2, 2016 at 5:13 pm
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Wondering where hills will offer tomorrow. Paddy are on Kempton.
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Borak is the horse for me on this one. Should be up there but probably doesnt have enough to win the race. If the odds are crap then I’ll toss a coin for the favourite and second favourite as theres nothing to seperate them.
+0Ah, non-runner. Now I’m sufficiently tempted.
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Skybet is Ludlow 13.10.
Paddy is Kempton and decent chance of 2nd to SP in the 18:40.
B365 is Ludlow 15:20 and Kempton 18:10. Some possibilities in these ones. Crazy looks okay on the exchanges.
Will Hill is Ludlow 14:25 and Kempton 17:05.
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Paddy to the SP fav ? does that mean i have to pick any horse but not the favourite ? for example
17:05 kempton fav is 7 Little Indian odds 4
so i can pick anyone but him?
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If the favourite is 3/1 don’t bother with the PP offer on that race – you want a clear fav (<EVS) and a small field (5-8 runners) to make it worth while.
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Little Indian won us a free bet on the Sky offer a few weeks back, if he doesnt go off as favourite, definitely worth a shot.
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Liquidity is really poor for this race with 15 minutes to go.
Backed Borak at 11, hope lay odds tighten in the next 10 minutes……
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This race is money back second, and as there are 6 runners the place betting also pays just 2 places.
Therefore I’m thinking it must be possible to guarantee profit from this??Quick calculation says eg;
£25 on the fav to win
=+18.36 if 1st, say -£5 2nd and -£25 3rd+Lay to win for liability £10
= -£10 if 1st, +£12.5 2nd, +£12.5 3rd+Lay to place for liability £4.7
= -£4.7 if 1st, -£4.7 2nd, +17.5 3rd+Which I reckon makes overall +£3.66 if it wins, +£2.80 for 2nd and +£5 for third.
I’m sure with a bit more time these could line up around the £3.5 profit for each possible result – not a great return but guaranteed no risk profit and probably not far off the EV we would get from taking a small loss and hoping we come 2nd??Have I missed something or does that seem right??
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Yeah youve missed the race ;)
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Lol!
I hadn’t actually, I fancied the favourite to win quite strongly here so backed him and didn’t lay, taking the second place money back as a cushion – all worked out OK this time!
It was just a thought that occurred to me whilst I was watching, the best price match was on 3rd fave at about 10/1, I would have been taking about a £2 loss, to win £20 if it came second so still about 10/1 – I know it’s not likely second than win but still didn’t seem great to me, so was mulling over better options+0
Cheers OP, nice to start the day of betting with a £25 FB
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Annoyingly I only put £10 on the Skybet one, but the £10 free bet is certainly better than nothing :-)
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Well I had the favourite didn’t lay, won €20.
He went off at 4/5 – so say 49% chance win for €20 real profit, 21% second for €20 profit extracted from free bet, leaving 30% chance lose 25. (Probability estimates based on past result for similarly rated horses).
My expected value there is €6.50.
If you managed to lay him at 0 cost then 21% chance second for profit of €20 for free bet – 79% not second for break even.
Matched betting expectation is €4.20 at best case.
Sometimes maybe its better not to lay the horses?
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Shit!!!. Ive just had a bloody nightmare. Hills popped up just before the first at Ludlow with a offer on the first 3 favs. Put a free £10 bet on i had with them. Laid the first 2 at a cost of £14 and the third has just been pulled out so bets void and me £14 down :(
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