SkyBet Second Chance 3.40 Wincanton
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Place a £10 bet on the 3.40 Wincanton and instantly receive a £5 free bet for another horse in the same race
How to Claim
Place a single bet of at least £10 (minimum odds 1/2) on any horse in the 3.40 Wincanton today
You will instantly be credited with a £5 free bet to use on any other horse in the same race+0February 4, 2016 at 10:28 am
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Will hill also doing MBS on this race
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Bet 365 has it for 4/1+
You could have 10 on the fav in b365
10 on the 2nd fav in will hill
10 on the 3rd fav in sky bet
and free skybet 5 on the 11/2 shot.Rest are 9/1 +.
Pretty good chance you will be up. And two more chances of free bets.
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Im just going to back and lay the £10 hopefully small loss. And then use the £5 free bet on the horse I do with William Hill that way if it wins profit..if it comes 2nd £25 free bet profit. So better chance!
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Sounds good.
And just to correct myself, no point in putting the 10 on the fav at bet365 because he is 3/1 – so switch it around.
I emptied out my Bet365 account after the welcome and on the move bonus – but seems there are opportunities I’m missing. I’ll need to see about funding it again.
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Going with Quite By Chance – has won three of his four chase victories at this course, the last two under this jockey. A six pounds rise in the weights(the fav has an 8 pound rise) may not be enough to stop him winning again today .
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I’m on As De Fer on Sky and Will. Cost me 35. Free 5 on Gores Island.
Return 140 if he wins.
If he is second and Gores Island wins then 25 free bet from will + 22.50 from sky. So still a profit.Any other scenario with Gores Island winning or As De Fer 2nd I’m down slightly.
Its obviously a gamble but I like the expected value that the potential for free bets add.
I don’t like laying – it limits your choices and some value promotions you have to turn down completely because you cant get tight odds. Or your on a 10/1 donkey hoping he comes second just because he was the only one you could find with tight odds.
That’s just how I roll.
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So if neither of your selections come in your down £10 in Sky and £25 in WH a loss of £35…? I’d rather not risk losing £35 to be honest.
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Yes exactly.
The €105 wins and the €35 losses average themselves out over the long run to the same small cost per bet that you are paying to back and lay.
But say for example for this horse 3/1 on William Hill. Assume a 20% chance he wins (for €75 profit) and 20% he is second (for €25 free bet – real money value =€20). So my expectation is €75 *20% + €20 *20% -€25 *60% = €4.
Matched betting expectation is also only 20% *€20 = €4 because you only win if he is second. Then you have to subtract the cost for backing and laying. And the expectation is much lower if you are on a 5/1 or 6/1 which will be 2nd only 15% of the time say.
You are losing through paying commission and paying out on your lays more than is a fair market price. You’re also restricted and sometimes forced to pick horses with an unlikely chance of coming 2nd, or skipping races altogether.
Its a choice between slow steady rise and slightly faster unpredictable rise!
Also I just cant back a horse and watch him win and be disappointed, it feels wrong.
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All I mean is that there is more than one way to skin a cat. But each to their own – I think we are all finding success on these promotions.
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Nevermind. Knew what I was saying was making no sense. If he is 2nd then Im a €5 loss not €20 profit.
As it is betting on 3/1 and better favourites I am making about €2 per race. It is comparable to matched betting profit per race.
+0As was previously pointed out by someone, without placing a significant number of bets over a fairly long time period, the variance could be lethal. Maybe you don’t suffer from loss aversion like most people here?
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I find it strange that someone who seems against matched betting keeps posting on a matched betting forum. I welcome his posts though as everything helps me learn more.
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Fog blog none of your suggestions relate to match betting. This is a match betting forum and you are continuing to post about taking a gamble. Matched betters are not gamblers and I would suggest am not the only person getting a bit fed up of your posts as I said earlier none relate to matched betting!
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I would have to agree, I don’t mind the odd £10 bet on an enhancement, but when we’re talking about a £35 bet in the hope your selections come first or 2nd…I think thats just pure gambling and you’re just asking to be £35 down.
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I am very risk averse. Its another option though.
This is the way that I exploited the free bets, because I hadn’t heard of matched betting. I think both perform comparably – both have advantages and disadvantages.
I thought that I would ditch my system after stumbling across Matched Betting – but I find it hard to let go.
The risk isn’t as high as you make out – I’m backing favourites less than 3/1 but yes you need a bank roll of about 250 (if you want to bet the max) for the case where you lose 10 in a row without any free bets either.
The other thing about these promotions is that you don’t have to bet the max 25 if you are risk averse. I started out in May 2015 with a balance of €20. I have never topped up my balance. So to me I’m not risking anything that I didn’t have before.
I used to keep some records, I can see I started only betting €2 a go on each race. Tracked it for 100 races in August – breaking even on real money bets and winning 20 free bets (worth €2*20=€40 …. or €32 profit in real money terms off 100 races that is 32c per race or 16% of stake).
I think I make most of my money on horses – my bookies balances since May 2015 has risen from €20 to €6000.
Backing all 3/1 and lower favourites is just so easy compared to backing and laying etc. And you seem to be able to bet on more races.
Matched Betting is so much much more safe than gambling on 3/1 and lower.
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