188 50 refund Arsenal vs Bournemouth/Everton vs Saints

50 return if Walcott or Wilson/Lukaku or Tadic score first.

Does anybody ever get good QL for these? First off, half the time the offer involves some doubtful or missing players. I’ve seen plenty of players start from the bench included in these offers. This weekend the City Burnley game had Gray and Aguero with Aguero doubtful and Grey who didn’t sttart afer all.
Today’s games see Walcott and Tadic both doubtful. Even if both players start I usually don’t find a way of making these work. One method I’ve considered is backing 0-0 with 188 and waiting to trade on a decent QL with the exchange but an early goal has potential to do a lot of damage in that case.

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LockBresner
0

November 27, 2016 at 8:16 am

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albatross 4 November 27, 2016 at 9:40 am

A better offer is their £25 back American football offer. Money back if LeSean McCoy scores a touchdown.

He’s 1.83 to do that with Skybet.

I’ve had good success with their red card offers and their Rugby and American football offers but not sure I fancy the football offers today.

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Tony S 9 November 27, 2016 at 10:49 am

I can never see these offers on the promotion page lads… am I in the wrong place?

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albatross 4 November 27, 2016 at 11:08 am

They run on ththe main landing page as a carousel. You on desktop? I can never see them on mobile.

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Tony S 9 November 27, 2016 at 11:12 am

Ah cheers alb… I’m on the app, i’ll have a gander over on the desktop ??

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ccmd0001 1 November 27, 2016 at 12:16 pm

I leave the offers that involves players scoring as the ql is too high for me.
Had some success when they do the red card or penalty scored offers so I do them on the 1×2 market. It’s really annoying when the offer is hit but your bet wins mind

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Chris 24 November 27, 2016 at 12:53 pm

Yeah best to avoid these offers when a) the 1×2 is excluded because the qualifying losses are never below £3-4 and b) when it involves a player scoring first as you dont even know if they’ll start.

It paid out during Champions League this week quite often because of the amount of red cards but rarely do these 188 offers come in, think thats fair to say.

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Marnie 0 November 29, 2016 at 6:08 pm

Hi. Im fairly new to this so feel free to tell me if im showing you how to suck eggs.

I saw the Bills v Jaguars offer the other day but didnt go for it due to the large QL at the time (over £5), but it did get me thinking about how I might be able to tell it an offer is worth taking up.

I then sat down at with a spreadsheet that calculated the QL for each possible bet (1,x,2), then calculated the probability of the win from the lay odds for each outcome. Then I subtracted that from 1 to get the prob of a loss. Next I calculated the prob of the second event from its odds (eg the touchdown , red card etc). Next I multiplied the prob of loss by the prob of second event to get the prob of winning the refund for each outcome. Lastly I multiplied this by the potential profit to get the Estimated Value of each outcome.

I appreciate the explanation might be a bit confusing but im happy to share if anyone is interested. Coming from a poker background this seemed like a way forward to me.

Tried it tonight on the Liverpool v Leeds offer and for the 188 odds of 1.31 (1), 6.6(x) and 10 (2) I get the following EVs, £1.05, £3.69 and £3.23. All positive but not great returns with the draw being best. I decided to give it a miss.

The results seem resonable so hopefully i havent made any mistakes.

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