188 Offers Sunday – Risk Free Approach

So 188 continue their slew of excellent offers with these 2 for Super Sunday.

Stake refund up to £50 if Defoe scores (and you lose!) In the Sunderland v Leicester match.

Stake refund up to £100 if there’s a red card in the Spurs v Man utd match.

Terms on the website on the slider, on the desktop version and you need adblocker software turned off.

Am I right in saying you can give yourself a risk free shot at profit with the following method. For simplification I’m inventing the odds here…

Back Leicester to win 1-0 at odds of 7, ensuring that your bet is a loser if Defoe does indeed score.

Let’s just say you can get lay odds of 8 for this which would give you a qualifying loss of £7.02 if betting the full £50.

You have in effect staked £7.02 on Defoe to score anytime to return £50 (assuming payout is in bonus money as per usual which in my opinion is as good as cash).

This is effective odds of 7.12 on defoe to score anytime. On bet fair he is likely to be around 3.5 to lay so whack your stake of 7.02 into the lay calculator with back odds of 7.12 and lay odds of 3.5 and you will get either a risk free shot of £25.06 if he scores or £7.06 guaranteed either way.

I know the odds are pretty useless at the moment but I’m pretty sure I’ve done my math’s right here, can anyone confirm before I commit tomorrow?

On a similar note you could do the red card offer the same way.

I’m really enjoying these 188 offers but feel I’ve had so many recently I’m probably going to be beaten with the gubbing stick before long!

+0

Mark
1

April 10, 2016 at 2:22 am

New to matched betting?

My Matched Betting Academy is the best place to get started. Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.

Learn Matched Betting

Mark 1 April 10, 2016 at 2:47 am

Edit. I used 2% commission in those calculations and you’d need to lay at bet fair so the numbers will be a bit off but you get the gist.

Playing around with the Spurs offer I can’t see better than a risk free shot at about £18-20 depending on the odds before the match, nothing to be sniffed at but could potentially end up with over a grand in 188 and I’m not sure I fancy that so may leave that alone. Especially bearing in mind between the two teams only one red card this season.

+0

FoG_BLoG 61 April 10, 2016 at 8:15 am

Your approach is good in theory. In practice will depend on the odds. Usually it is difficult to get good odds on the markets your talking about.

Good luck though, hope you find the right numbers!

I’m always wary of money back IF offers. Where the if is unlikely to happen (<20% chance) then in my opinion there won’t be much profit in it usually. Unless as you did above and guarantee profit.

Scratch that though. Didn’t realise Defoe was so strong favourite to score 15/8.

A player sent off is 11/4 on the other offer. Don’t know how you can pick a qualifying bet that will lose for sure if there is a red.

+0

Chris 24 April 10, 2016 at 9:31 am

The problem with these offers are always the trash odds 188 put up. The “IF” has come off quite a lot lately but its more or less a gamble given the high qualifying losses.

+0

JDUBU 8 April 10, 2016 at 9:36 am

might sit out fo this until i get paid for last nights offer!You are right Chris my loss for that free bet last night was around £6!

+0

FoG_BLoG 61 April 10, 2016 at 9:45 am

I think that you have to email them JDUBU with the offer code. Did you?

+0

JDUBU 8 April 10, 2016 at 9:49 am

Hi Fog yeah i emailed them last night with the code and went on live chat too they said it was fine.

+0

RyanB 16 April 10, 2016 at 9:58 am

NOTE: you CANNOT guarantee profit or make it risk free on the red card offer….your bet has to lose, there is no way you can guarantee your bet to lose. So the slim chance that your bet wins and there is a red card you lose both lays and no free bet/bonus funds…if not worth the risk…this has come up before on Matt Blog.

+0
Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.

Δ

Email*
RyanB 16 April 10, 2016 at 10:02 am

JDUBU you said your qualifying loss last night was around £6 did you actually check the odds of him Knocking him out within the first 2 rounds to see if the value was actually there? You’d be a amazed how many people jump on these offers blindly and would actually be better off just betting the qualifying loss!

Depending on the qualifying loss for defoe if you can make it risk free and have a potential £10+ if he scores then you’d be stupid not to do it really.

+0

albatross 4 April 10, 2016 at 10:14 am

I backed away from this when I realised the effective odds were around the same as the Skybet boost. For some reason I wouldn’t have bet on it with Sky but seem drawn to freebet offers like a moth to a light. Ironic that I got myself under control and it ended up being profitable anyway.

I’m trying to show some restraint so that I don’t completely run out of accounts. I took four gubbings on Friday which must be a blog record.

+0

JDUBU 8 April 10, 2016 at 10:15 am

Hi Ryan i saw after sky were offering odds of 5 for him to win within 2 rounds i believe but i got to be honest no i didnt look around as I got on it last minute.Judging by his previous record i thoguht it had a good chance of coming in and luckily it did. Yeah Defoe one could have a good chance i reckon.

+0

Chris 24 April 10, 2016 at 10:25 am

My qualifying loss was about £5 on a £50 bet but given Joshua’s previous record it was well worth going for. No luck about it, he knocked him down twice within seconds of the second round starting.

+0

Mark 1 April 10, 2016 at 10:36 am

Cheers guys and Ryan you’re right no way to ensure that you lose on the red card offer so yet another reason to leave that one alone!

+0

RyanB 16 April 10, 2016 at 10:40 am

Well im not saying leave it alone you just can’t guarantee/make it risk free. If you manage to get odds on a close score then it is definitely worth it. Obviously if you do the full £100 then your qualifying loss will be quite high but I can almost guarantee that the effective odds will be over double of the actual odds for a red card so the value is clearly there…somewhat harder though as you have to make sure your bet loses as well. I tend to think 0-0 is a good shout as if theres a red card it could be a penalty which is obviously a good goal scoring chance, or even if its not youd like to think a team playing 10 men could score a goal.

+0

Dbb 4 April 10, 2016 at 10:44 am

just looking at the Defoe one and one of the qualifiers is both teams to score?

might just do 20 quid back and lay on btts no. if leicester score first then i could lay dafoe as it would then be a losing qualifier?

+0

RyanB 16 April 10, 2016 at 10:48 am

…….so what happened if a different Sunderland player scores and its 1-1 you lose both lays….

+0