188bet French open – MB when win first set but lose match
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FRENCH OPEN – MONEY BACK UP TO €/£25 IF YOUR SELECTION WINS THE FIRST SET BUT LOSES THE MATCH. (FO25)
If your selection for the French Open wins the first set but loses the match, we will refund your losing stake as a free bet up to a maximum of €/£25! Terms apply.This sounds to be worth a shot. Can any tennis fans confirm whether it’s likely to be worthwhile?
+0May 22, 2017 at 1:28 pm
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Betway had a similar offer for Italian and Madrid open recently.
With the Grand Slams being best of 5 sets this is potentially a decent offer if you can find some very low QL’s.
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I’ll try do some stats tomorrow unless anyone beats me to it. Think it’s in woman’s best of 3 too based on the ad pic
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So I’ve done the research on the 2016 tourny. Firstly the mens draw:
26/125 matches that got beyond a set without retirements would have hit the free bet. So we are talking a 1 in 5 chance, meaning if we have to pick a winner out of the 2 its more like 1 in 10
Onto the womens:
20/127 matches that got beyond a set without retirements hit the free bet. More like 1 in 6 chance, but again bearing in mind we have to pick a winner then make that 1 in 12
Obviously you have to consider the chances of each person actually winning…for example if Federer drops the first set against a qualifier he will still probably win whereas the other way around its almost impossible for the qualifier/no hoper to win
In summary I’d say worth it as long as the QL’s are low, but don’t expect it to come in all the time so u may have to work for it. 3 other things to remember:
– Tennis matches can have different rules on voiding bets between the bookie and exchange so check this
– Each FB is subject to a 2x rollover
– You can only claim 7 times in total on this offer over the tournyThanks to me!
+0Well done
Lot of effort you put in to share+0Thanks matchie. Based on your research, was it typically the favourite that went on to win having gone down a set?
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Boyles usually do this offer too so could bet on both players to really make it a 1 in 5 chance for mens and 1 in 6 chance for women (nice one on the research Matchedem, top dawg for that)
HUGE BIG WARNING THOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As Matchedem already said be careful of the the different rules. Only yesterday I got horribly stung by this.
I used a 50 FB on the Caroline Wozniaki ,match.I backed the outsider she was playing with my FB, think her name as Shelby or something? Anyway long story short, Shelby won 1st set and Caroline retired after 1st game in the 2nd set.
The exchange showed me as losing -256 quid, I hopefully checked the FB on Paddy Power and they voided it as per their rules.
So Dan was -256 and also lost the 50 value of the FB. Thankfully I used up some rainy day FBs, bonuses and sign ups and managed to break even on the day and was delighted with that, but in truth I’m still so annoyed about it today.
Would like to warn others.
It’s a very unlucky thing to happen but it can and does happen, and I could have avoided it, I should have known better.
Just hope it saves someone from making the same error in the future.
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arb it seemed to be yeh…especially in the mens game. But very mixed so if the QL is much lower go with it
Agree on the risk of a retirement too…my advice would be dont back a player where the loss would be too much for u to take
+0Smarkets & Betfair are 1 set for the bet to stand but 188 are the whole match so vey risky.
+0Only if the loss is too much to take as matchedem said. Long term it will even itself out as there is as much chance you win as lose (Unless throwing in injury prone players) so is just variance
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Everytime this offer or one similar has come up, people on here have been stung by the retirement rule and lose both bets.
Is it really worth pursuing a £25 bet that is unlikely to come in in the first place? You’re pretty much gambling £200+ on a player completing a match and hoping that he/she wins the first set but loses the match.
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IF betway does the same offer, you can dutch with them because they have the same retirement rules and have the chance of the freebie on both sides of the bet. I did these last grass season between titanbet and betway. Didn’t come off very often though.
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Or 2 188bet accounts like me :)
Get your point this but I doubt I’d ever choose a 7/1 shots unless the QL was super low so most bets probably risking 50 or 60 quid either way (similar to your free bet methods lollipop). All depends what people can accept as variance though…one bad loss here makes the offer worthless
I think the key thing is going to be 188bet odds
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First try at this yesterday and hit 2 FB’s! Today we go again
Just wondering how people were reading the T+C’s. As far as I can see you can claim for up to 7 free bets but only once, so I need to build up my wins and keep a log before sending one big email claim and keeping my fingers crossed:
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