Acca Profit Spreadsheet
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Hi All
I’ve been racking my brain most of the day trying to come up with a spreadsheet that generates the correct lay stakes to guarantee the expected value profit of a 6 fold acca.
After a lot of trial/error I think I’ve got something that works.
The spreadsheet can be accessed here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gBiVP9tC1wIP-jwv_ps0uMqr-mZSPYRt-TOPkHDWHsc/edit#gid=432786789
If someone can check I’ve got this right it would be appreciated as I’d like to start doing these over the next week or so.Thanks
+0February 27, 2016 at 6:41 pm
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Your method has some benefits – mainly that the first five legs can overlap allowing us to take advantage of more matches.
The price we pay for this is not guaranteeing profit from every acca we do, and running with the variance.Firstly, we only make money here when the first five legs win, that means we should look for legs with the shortest odds possible. This may just be an example but your first leg at odds of 1.5 seems too long, I’d aim for <1.25 wherever possible.
I’m a bit confused by your spreadsheet, particularly the ‘to back’ cell, d18 and subsequent calculations using it?
As I understand your method, you leave the first 5legs without laying, to me that would go like this;
1)first 5 all win – use ‘risk free’ section of calculator to work out lay, back odds = total odds of Acca + bonus, stake = £50, lay odds = lay odds of the final match, free bet value = £42.50. From your example we’d guarantee £156 profit at this point.
2)1 of first 5 has lost -we are down our stake of £50, but can lay the final leg against potential return of £42.5. (If the final leg is longer odds, you won’t guaruntee much from this.)
3)2+ lost, we are down £50
I’m not too sure what you’re trying to do differently with your spreadsheet – I’m intrigued to find out though
+0anyone got a copy of Jezs spreadsheet can’t seem to open the link he posted now.
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i could do with this too
+0Using Matts Risk Free calculator I see the following figures:-
Lay stake of £165.26 and profit of £151.95.
I put the following into the calculator:-
Back Stake £50
Cashback £40
Back odds 23.209
Lay odds 6.8
+0I agree with Blank if these are real back and lay odds I think you need to choose games with much shorter odds. The probability of the first five legs all winning is less than 30% this means you would have long runs of at least one of the first five legs losing.
+0If we play around with the figures in the Spreadsheet, a good case can be made for giving up some EV by making the last leg much shorter odds too but having a much higher win rate. Most people can cope with smaller but more regular wins rather than less frequent but much larger wins.
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This has been discussed to death. It’s really not difficult. In theory, you want to maximise the probability that exactly one leg loses (whilst keeping odds close to those on the exchange), as all the value comes from the free bet.
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Copy of the spreadsheet please markcorrigan
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Has the spreadsheet been taken down?
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did it ever exist? very dodgy have to wonder who’s working for the bookies
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The one on page 6 here was working until a few days ago???
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The one on page 6 here was working until a few days ago???
+0When did this all become so secretive?
+0Yes it certainly did exist and was an excellent bit of work. I didn’t copy it myself because I would have found it rather difficult to be able to lay each leg at the appropriate time.
I am going to look into either laying just the last leg, or possibly not laying at all.
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Does anyone have any kind of calculator for a guaranteed profit knocking about?
It’s a great time for these with the global internationals throwing up so many low odds games…
I’m close to biting the bullet and going in for accumulator generator subscription. Such a pain in the arse trying to find a calculator for guaranteed profit.
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