Accas (again!)

Just having a look at the Oddsmonkey Acca Matcher and I cant quite get my head round the results.

This is for the Sequential Lay Lock In.

As a test I am using WilliamHill and the selections it suggests. The odds for the 5 selections are as follows along with the suggested lay stake.

1.29 / 1.3 – £47.44
1.25 / 1.28 – £56.61
1.22 / 1.24 – £68.52
1.29 / 1.32 – £78.11
1.29 / 1.33 – £97.48

The matcher suggests that I should be able to lock in between £11 and £9 no matter the result of the acca. Stop laying after 2 losses.

But the maths gets stuck on the first lost leg

If the first leg loses-

Lose initial stake £50
Win 80% of the initial stake bonus £40
Win lay first lost leg £47.77
Lose the remaining 4 leg lays (£16+£16+£25+£32) £89

Equates to £40 + £47.77 – £87 – £50 = -£49.23

Where am I going wrong?

I have created a spread sheet that tries to replicate the matcher and it comes up with the correct amount for ALL WIN – losses for 1 loss (except the last leg) and big £50+ wins for 2 leg losses?

Can anyone shed any light?

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mwilks
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January 19, 2017 at 11:42 am

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FoG_BLoG 60 January 19, 2017 at 12:06 pm

There should be a different lay amount if one leg is already lost. You are laying much much less in order to extract the value of the potential free bet.

So when you say the below you are wrong. The acca has lost so you dont lay full amount.

“Lose the remaining 4 leg lays (£16+£16+£25+£32) £89”

Instead you should have something like

“Lose the remaining 4 leg lays (£4+£4+£7+£10) £25”

So that leaves you with

“Equates to £40 + £47.77 – £25 – £50 = +£12.77”

I dont have oddsmonkey, I have my own spreadsheet and it is giving slightly different lays than you have above .. but the idea is to lay different amount whether no previous legs have lost, whether one previous leg has lost and if 2 legs have lost stop laying.

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mwilks 0 January 19, 2017 at 12:21 pm

Cheers FoG. I did think that,

The software is a bit naughty as it doesn’t explain that there is an adjustment when one leg loses.

I am on the right track on the way I do it then. As I do it similar to how you have explained.

Except I am trying to get it to break even if 2 lose and make a bit more if all or 1 lose.

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MbPunter 24 January 19, 2017 at 1:02 pm

Doesn’t the software have a result tab? So once one loses it will recalculate your lays for you?

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bobster 1 January 19, 2017 at 2:01 pm

@MbPunter – correct – you specify the result after each match and it adjust accordingly – along with allowing you to enter the updated lay odds – it’s great!

I use it for my acca lock in, as it’s super easy, and I’ve never actually seen a spreadsheet for lock ins posted on here that works.

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FoG_BLoG 60 January 19, 2017 at 2:14 pm

Does it automatically suggest the matches or you you have to find them yourself?

If it automatically suggests the matches then does it pick popular games as throwing up obscure games in China or S. America with close matches might flag up your account?

I just ask because the value that mwilks has found with his 1.29/1.3 matches is better than what I usually find searching manually. Might be worth having a matcher if I am getting an extra £2-£3 profit off each acca as I do at least 10 each weekend.

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betman 41 January 19, 2017 at 2:32 pm

But if bookies are aware of this then you’ll get groups of people repeatedly backing the same accas and potentially stand out that way

Fog- I sometimes find some games by starting with bestbetting or oddschecker and making sure I have the best bookie odds. Can sometimes identify a few closer matches than trawling through the low odds games on a particular bookie coupon

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FoG_BLoG 60 January 19, 2017 at 2:44 pm

I always start with the popular bets section if they have one.

Often the 5 most popular bets make a good enough Acca. I feel like a right mug clicking all 5 and add to slip.

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bobster 1 January 19, 2017 at 3:36 pm

It has auto selection, but you can select different ones and then it puts those in the calculation instead. I always just select popular games, as like you say, betting on a load of random leagues won’t look good.

It’s £15 a month (or it was whenever I got it), but I make that back easily – plus I just can’t figure out a spreadsheet for the guaranteed profit lock in, so without it I’d make £0.

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mwilks 0 January 19, 2017 at 3:53 pm

Sorry gents. Always pays to read the manual!!

There’s another section to the software that updates the stakes as and when a result is decided.

Could maybe do with being a bit more customisable. Rather than guarantee a profit on all outcomes, i’d like to break even with 2 losses and make a bit more with on the 1 loss and all win.

My spreadsheet is pretty close. I just cant automate it. I need to put in the lay amounts manually and play around with the figures to get the outcome I want..

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Tony S 8 January 19, 2017 at 7:42 pm

Love a bit “BOG” on a first selection mind!… me Acca is now worth £45 more ??

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