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Arb+ money back? 13.55 Newbury

  • Sky are offering money back for 2nd and 3rd at 13.55 at Newbury up to £20.

    Is there any reason why I cannot place £20 to win and lay against placing in top 3?

    This would potentially give massive Arb (£21 on midterm – 3.25 / 1.57) plus a chance of money back if 2nd or 3rd.

    Please someone tell me why my logic is wrong?!

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    jrbets
    0
    April 22, 2017 at 8:08 am

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    Rob 3 April 22, 2017 at 8:11 am

    What if ur horse finishes 4th?

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    jrbets 0 April 22, 2017 at 8:15 am

    Laying it not to place?

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    Rob 3 April 22, 2017 at 8:24 am

    Naaaaa something wrong here. It just sounds to good to be true to be honest otherwise everyone would jump on it straight away:)

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    jrbets 0 April 22, 2017 at 8:29 am

    My thoughts exactly! Potential £35 with Dylan lay.

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    BobbyP 2 April 22, 2017 at 8:30 am

    That’s fine if the horse wins, but if it places you’ll lose money. Example:

    Back £20 @ 3.25
    Lay the place £20.4 on Smarkets @ 1.55 (liability £11.22)

    If the horse finishes 2nd or 3rd you’ll lose £31.22 (your stake plus your Smarkets lay), and you’ll get your free £20 bet (so presumably down around £12-£15 overall).

    With this one I would partially lay the win (say £14 @ 3.5) and then cover the rest of the bet by laying the place (say £6.40 @ 1.55). I’ll then be up around £6-7 if it’s top 3, otherwise break even.

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    Rob 3 April 22, 2017 at 8:30 am

    Right if the horse comes 2nd or 3rd u get only your refund of Sky which after extraction would be around £16. U then loose ur original stake of £20 at Sky coz the horse didn’t win and you will loose £45 (stake & liability) at the exchange due to a horse finishing 2nd or 3rd as you were laying against it… way to good to be true:)

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    jrbets 0 April 22, 2017 at 8:32 am

    Thanks Bobby; the voice of reason. Shattering dreams ?

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    Rob 3 April 22, 2017 at 8:34 am

    Yes bobby is right u will loose around £30 in ur exchange if the horse places. My quick calculation was wrong.

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