Are we mimicking inside activity?

• For prices to shift on the exchange closer to the specified back odds (the very opportunities we jump on) there usually has to be a good amount of support on the exchange for such a change to occur in order to shorten the price accordingly and to keep the price down long enough for a match to materialize. This can sometimes be a number of general punters jumping on the bandwagon causing such a price to shorten much like a domino effect which can be down to mere speculation having no relation to the outcome whatsoever.

  Other times it can be a network of insiders who know trainers/owners and have connections within the racing industry who are waiting for the right time to put down huge amounts of money on the horse in question that they may have information about that others do not have access to. Naturally they are going to choose exchanges to do this because there will be no restrictions on they’re bets. We then jump on these opportunities and lay accordingly at a small loss before bookies make their adjustments…

  Of course we know there are no guarantee’s in racing but our aim is to get the best possible value when placing our bets.

  To increase our chances of picking the winning horse, theoretically one would need to determine the difference in betting patterns between people jumping on the bandwagon and genuine ‘insider’ activity on the exchanges. I’m not saying i know the answer to that but maybe someone with trading experience in this area might have some idea on it?…

  For instance… If there is a gradual shift in price over time, one could put this down to people jumping on the bandwagon with small to medium stakes i.e standard punters following the trending horse.

  On the flip side, If there is a sudden, large impacting shift in price where a huge amount of money is being backed on the exchange, could this be an indication of insiders at play? Why else would such a large amount of funds be put at risk? and for it to happen that quickly surely it cannot be a vast amount of people causing that shift. These people are not messing around…

  I’m not saying there is any truth to my examples here i’m just giving food for thought and talking theoretically… I have read there is a direct correlation in the horses we end up choosing and the horses that end up winning due to what i have explained above…

  I have been matchbetting for around one and a half years and overall I am thousands up on the bookies and naturally thousands down on the exchange. I’m talking specifically horse racing here. Not football and the rest of it. Is this luck or is it a possibility, I am for the most part mimicking insiders and they’re betting patterns thus winning more than usual in consequence?

  Could one beat the bookies by doing essentially everything we do to get the matches but not laying the outcomes?

  And more importantly would this be more profitable than matchbetting in the long run?

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  Sy

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  May 30, 2016 at 10:13 pm