Betfair Betting Pattern

I’m putting this up just to help maybe people see what patterns the bookies are looking at.

1) I’m not moaning that I got gubbed.
2) I don’t want to be told that I should have mug betted.

For those that are interested, I had 70 bets of €10 on 0-0 and won 5 of them which returned €460 + €410 in free bets. So it averaged out in my case at about only €1.30 profit per match.

I did feel that I was due another win as I had gone 23 matches without a correct score mostly doing odds of about 9/1.

That was my betting pattern leading up to the bonus restrictions – no wins, no free bets no withdrawals, no horses (except a couple at Cheltenham and Grand National).

I have a Paddy Power account as well with the same username and email. Bonus offers were removed from that back in February and betfair and Paddy Power are now the same company.

I had some horse bets on the Grand National day and on Cheltenham week as well with some BIG wins. Apart from those the pattern was just football correct scores on all the double odds offers.

My Betfair account probably dates back to early 2000’s if not the 90’s. So they don’t respect loyalty.

I had no recent withdrawals – the latest was one month ago during Cheltenham festival.

I don’t use the betfair exchange at all which should send out the signal that I am not a matched bettor. I either lay my bets on smarkets or don’t lay them at all (save commission and time).

I hope that this gives some people some clues as to what patterns the bookies are looking out for in terms of restricting people that take too much value from their promotions.

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FoG_BLoG
60

April 14, 2016 at 1:14 pm

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nick2punt 12 April 14, 2016 at 1:31 pm

Just to be pedantic, Betfair was founded in the year 2000. 🙂

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mike j 13 April 14, 2016 at 1:39 pm

I have been matched betting for close to a year now. I decided to take about 4 weeks off in jan/Feb. During my time off I got gubbed from ladbrokes,coral,sky and PP. 2 of them didn’t even tell me I was banned until I question why free bets had not been credited once I started betting again

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MbPunter 24 April 14, 2016 at 2:34 pm

The 0-0 odds have become terrible last few weeks. It’s pretty obvious they know what’s going on.

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the_don 1 April 15, 2016 at 10:23 am

Lost mine today. Been doing a lot of double promos. Not many wins. It’s not the end of the world but sucks anyway. It’s nice to have as a backup exchange to Smarkets though.

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steveo 4 April 15, 2016 at 11:23 am

I’m thinking of sacking off the double score winnings. Fog’s return looks so low it doesn’t seem worth the effort let alone risking the bookies acco

Edit: actually it’s not as bad as it looks is it. £100-£120 invested and returned £350 give or take given the poor odds betfair offer for this and the exchange rate. It’s pretty good just fairly long term.

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Sy 3 April 15, 2016 at 2:24 pm

I believe if you don’t bet on the exchange then that would be more likely they would gub you as they are not getting any value in commissions from you.

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FoG_BLoG 60 April 15, 2016 at 2:43 pm

Steveo,I think its a good value offer, but I went 23 games without hitting a 0-0 which has got to be unusual. Otherwise my return would have been a lot higher.

But I also hit two 0-0’s once in the same day as well, so evens it out a bit.

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Chris 23 April 20, 2016 at 9:42 am

Sorry only just saw this.

I am by no means saying “I told you so” FoG but I believe it was last week I said to you that just betting on 0-0’s is sure to flag you up with Betfair.

Their staff will be well aware of what matched betting is and if someone is spending £40-60 a week betting on 0-0’s in the Premier and Champions League, it’s pretty obvious what they are doing.

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FoG_BLoG 60 April 20, 2016 at 10:17 am

Yea I knew it was a bit risky. But I had hit two 0-0’s during Cheltenham and one of the free bets went on a horse that won at high odds also boosted by BOG.

I was on borrowed time so took as much as I could in the last few weeks.

Kind of like when paddy power were ready to drop the axe and we hammered them on the money back 2nd to SP right to the end…

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Chris 23 April 20, 2016 at 10:28 am

Those were the days

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Punisher 0 April 20, 2016 at 11:35 am

Just to add a bit more to what has already been covered, over the last couple of months I haven’t really been doing much matched betting as such.

First of all I have just been gubbed with PaddyPower a few days ago, I was matched betting to qualify for their 2x £5 in play bets but I was not actually MB’ing the free bets, I was using them as a punt. Some weeks I would win nothing some weeks I would win £50-£100. I do a fair amount of normal betting with PaddyPower too not even trying to mug bet or act like a normal customer just because I fancied a bet, and hey ho it didn’t work anyway.

The next day I received an email from Betfair telling me I had been gubbed basically. Now I never really liked betfair as a bookies I always preferred Bet365/Skybet but I had around £700 in Betfair because I rarely withdrew anything so it just mounted up.
Now a few weeks back I had a CRAZY night where I was bored and started to play roulette (never again) and it’s safe to say I got carried away once my balance started to drop and chased the funds resulting in me losing £700 to Betfair. On top of this I rarely use the exchange which I think highlights you as a matched bettor most of the time (betting against acca’s etc is pretty specific) and also because my balance was so high I was placing a lot of accumulators on football, horse racing, a mixture of both etc, none of which a matched bettor could’ve ever layed against for any sort of profit, however Betfair low and behold have still gubbed me.

So if PaddyPower and Betfair are sharing records and info which they must be, I don’t think there is really anything you can do to prevent the inevitable as I haven’t been matched betting for the last few months and they still caught me out.

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mike j 13 April 20, 2016 at 12:12 pm

Oh dear £700. I bet you were grumpy the next day.

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Tony S 8 April 20, 2016 at 7:15 pm

Interesting read

However, I like FoG pretty much always do the 0-0… and not only that I actually lay it off on the Betfair Exchange!

No gubbing here!

Whatever scale they use to banish us from their sight… It seems we haven’t cottoned onto it yet

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dingodollar 8 April 22, 2016 at 5:27 pm

I rarely did 0-0 and I did not tap up the ones where there was a clear favourite so unlikely to be drawing at ht.I got gubbed a couple of months ago from this offer I hit 6 winners in about 2 months so that was the end of it for me.I got a decent return from it!

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