Betfair – double winning on correct score
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if level at half time.
Tonight Liverpool vs West Ham
Tomorrow Peterborough vs west brimMatt’s previous blog about this offer here https://matchedbettingblog.com/football/betfair-sportsbook-offer-double-winnings-correct-score-bets-2/#.VrmxUPj46nM
Or you can put 10 on 0-0 draw and lay for 10/0.98 on smarkets for a risk free no cost chance of winning …
+0February 9, 2016 at 9:32 am
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Yeah 0-0 is the road to gub city
What regular punter is actually going to ever be picking 0-0, never mind consistently/exclusively. BF aren’t stooopid 🙂 I think the key is mixing it upI appreciate what you’re doing there in terms of trying to actually predict the most profitable score line for this specific promo, and letting it run to FT. I just hate waiting for those big potential wins – and I think because football is so random, attempts at predictions like that are futile within a handful of matches – you could hit lucky often like Ryan was doing, or you could go forever without a big DWOCS win (like myself)
I prefer locking in small profits consistently by overlaying and getting out while I’m ahead. 0-0 is obvious – but that’s why it is to be avoided cause BF knows this. 1-1 is similarly convenient esp because you can overlay it off pre-HT. Scores like 1-0 Liverpool are ok as they might hit 0-0 HT 30% of the time, and then are nice to overlay at HT as the odds come way down.
Other than that, I like scores like 2-1, 3-1 etc – they leave the door open on those 1-1 HT draws (10% of the time) and even for 0-0 HT draws they can still be overlayed later in the 2nd half whether you hit the scoreline or not.+0
I’ve updated the spreadsheet to account for the profitability of each option and also I’ve calculated added the % difference between the bet and lay stakes (this is the column named parity). To select the best bet I did the following equation:
Chance of Success * Profitability * Parity. This gives the green column named “Decider”. The top three picks are highlighted in gold. 1st is 0-1, 2nd is 1-0 and 3rd is 1-1. These are by no means guaranteed successes but I believe they will give you the best bang for your buck if you apply this strategy over the long term.
https://i.imgur.com/e3nxQmq.png
I myself am putting the money on 0-1 as it is ahead by quite a distance in the decider category. Qualifying bet is £1.70 and your potential profit is about £135 (80% of £170). Worth a shot.
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Where does the score % come from? You have estimated a 15.36% chance of 1-0 but only 1.81% chance of 0-0?
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With Chris on this, just have a punt and enjoy the game. Definitely profitable over time regardless of the score line you pick for me its around a £1.50 loss and makes the match more fun knowing I have a small chance at a good whack of profit.
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Meh would rather just have fun with it. Gone 2-1 Liverpool tonight.
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FoG_BLoG, adding up all the percentages gives you a total of 420%, therefore I divided each percentage by 4.2 to give the total of 100%. This is likely not accurate in reality but it keeps everything simple. I don’t think it interferes with the end result from what I can tell as all the percentages are getting divided by same value.
Yeah, I get what you’re saying about having fun, true that. I just love a well formated Excel spreadsheet tho haha. Also making money is fun too 😛
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1-0 Everton? What about the stats on the amount of times Liverpool score at home and how many clean sheets Everton keep. Think i’ll trust those stats more than the probability calculated by your spreadsheet.
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I’ve gone for 1-0 Everton ahaha, only on the basis that I like doing random wild ones in the hope one will come off one day, bit of fun like we said!
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Yeah thats fair enough, I was just saying I wouldnt go 1-0 Everton on any kind of “informed” advice. If you’re just doing random ones, thats great too.
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By the way, I acknowledge that if Everton do win 1-0, I’ll look like a right cunt.
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No you won’t look like a cunt, Ryan will just look like a genius.
As usual
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Chris, 1-0 Everon isn’t most likely result, not by a long shot its not. However, after factoring in the profitability, the chance of it being a half time draw, the small difference between bet and lay values and other such factors it is the result that I think is best to go for. Who knows though, this is football after all, and even the most unlikely results could come up tonight as a winner for someone, I’m just trying to make some sense of it for myself though, I like the taking the geek approach lol.
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Ahaha no havent had a winner in ages, and by picking 1-0 i think that run will continue, only picked it as ive been joking around in work all day that everton will win 1-0
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So you are taking the odds of first team to score (1.53) and used this to estimate the probability of 1-0 final score…
And the probability of 2-0 is 1.53*1.53?
No I don’t think you will get accurate probabilities based off that at all…
You’re seriously over estimating the likelihood of 1-0 and 0-1, by the way I read you’re s/s.
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I don’t even know why I’m on this thread as I’m barred.
Hydro looks very familiar!?
Good luck with your bets!
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