Betfair – double winning on correct score
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if level at half time.
Tonight Liverpool vs West Ham
Tomorrow Peterborough vs west brimMatt’s previous blog about this offer here https://matchedbettingblog.com/football/betfair-sportsbook-offer-double-winnings-correct-score-bets-2/#.VrmxUPj46nM
Or you can put 10 on 0-0 draw and lay for 10/0.98 on smarkets for a risk free no cost chance of winning …
+0February 9, 2016 at 9:32 am
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FoG_BLoG, its an estimation just, those were the best figures I could find out of all the markets that reflects goal scoring ability of the teams, if there is a better set of figures I will plug them in.
1-0 & HT Draw is 7.83%, 0-1 & HT Draw is 4.05%. Seems fair enough odds to me.
Thanks FoG_BLoG I hope the bet comes in. Probably wont but still, one can dream.
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Hyrdo when did you become so good looking?
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mother johnson mother johnson
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Annoying when you get so close to a draw at half time!
+0Well there goes double winnings tonight lol
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As if millions of Betfair customers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
+0That escalated quickly!
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Everton leak goals like no tomorrow
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Hydro. Going back to your figures. You could use odds of correct score on exchange or bookie if you want.
With your basic figures so far off I don’t think your profitability estimates are accurate enough.
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https://i.imgur.com/zlJXBHv.png
I’ve uploaded the spreadsheet with tomorrows Arsenal v West Brom game loaded into it.
Grey cells are the ones you need to input data into, most are self explanatory. Team 1, None, Team 2 are 1st goalscorer markets. Divisor is the variable that is used to bring the total score % to 100%.https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10725456/Storage/spreadsheet.xlsx
Can you show me what you mean FoG_BLoG?
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Hydro to be honest that’s all going over my head (especially what first goalscorer market, or first team to score I think you mean, has to do with anything)
But just to ask – assuming your predictions/extrapolations are correct and useful – what kind of sample size of games do you think you’d need before you see any benefit or edge or increase in potential profit – Football is such a random game I don’t think it’s of any use for any one individual match or even a bunch of matches. How many of these promos are you planning to do? 🙂+0
anyway I made 44p on that game.
cha-ching!+0
Even though its random there are still aspects within your control e.g. in a 3-1 game the odds of a half-time draw are about 25% whereas in a 0-0 game the odds of a half-time draw are 100%. I’m pretty sure I’ll need to do lots of these to get a few hits. Tbh its just me being too much into the math most likely lol.
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Fair enough, I was just wondering if the work put into all that is worth it 🙂
I personally think if you want more control over the profits, then overlaying is the way to go. Nothing worse than getting a HT draw and your score still doesn’t come in leaving you with that qualifying loss. I prefer to lock in a profit at HT or in-play in the 2nd half. Some say picking a score and letting it run is more fun – I think saying goodbye to all those qualifier losses and waiting 20 games to hit a win is boring as shit, but that’s me 😛
Who the hell knows what’s best.+0
Hydro, are you attempting to derive the probabilities of correct scores using the odds for next goal? That’s absurd. There’s a market called “correct score”… It’s generally pretty good.
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