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Betfair Exchange racing offer

  • Just wondering whether anyone has dabbled with this – the back a horse at 4.0 or higher and get your money back if it goes odds on in play then loses?

    I’ve always left this alone on the basis that it was unlikely to be profitable based on frequency of it occurring, one you factor in the slightly higher lay odds and commission. Anyone have any thoughts or experiences with this?

    Also, any issue with qualifying if you’re gubbed on SB?

    +0
    Matchtime
    5
    September 11, 2018 at 12:39 pm

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    bbobb 24 September 11, 2018 at 1:21 pm

    Probably a decent offer (and will happen more often than you would expect) but the problem occurs if you are using BF as your regular exchange.
    Starts getting complicated as it has to be your first bet and you can’t lay (I’ve been stung by similar promos on the Ex before).

    +0
    Mr Crispy 34 September 11, 2018 at 2:03 pm

    It’s a £10 max refund so you’re never going to get rich on it.

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    MbPunter 24 September 13, 2018 at 7:01 pm

    I see they’ve made this a whole meeting per day. I thought it was just 1 race. Will give it a go.

    +0
    bbobb 24 September 14, 2018 at 9:39 am

    Backing the favourite would be best strategy.

    +0
    MbPunter 24 September 14, 2018 at 9:53 am

    Yeah as close to the 4.0 minimum the play. 4.0/4.1, 4.3/4.4 etc about a 60p QL loss assuming 5% betfair, 0% smarkets, getting about 16/1. Could try for perfect matches but probably not worth the time wasted.

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    bbobb 24 September 14, 2018 at 11:13 am

    I stuck in a few £10 bets at as close to 4.0 as I could get and queued them as small arbs, if they don’t get taken then it’s a small punt.

    Not spending any time on it but if they are doing a meeting a day it should be an easy £10-£20 a day.

    Depending how I get on I may just punt it every day to save time.

    +0
    Mr Crispy 34 September 14, 2018 at 12:38 pm

    I’ve been persuaded, I’m having a go at this.

    I’ve done mine already, I guess ideally you’d wait until just before the off to place your bets to minimise the chance of a rule 4 dropping the odds below 4.0 but oh well.

    My magic 8-

    Buffalo River
    Sheikhzayedroad
    Legends Of War
    Loveisili
    Al Erayg
    Athmad
    Ben Vrackie
    Laugh Aloud

    +0
    MbPunter 24 September 14, 2018 at 12:57 pm

    Got most of those too!

    Yeah see what you mean about any reductions dipping it under 4.0.
    Suppose the flip side of that is if we ignore say a 4.1 shot then come back at the off and its 3.6, we’ve missed the boat.

    +0
    bbobb 24 September 14, 2018 at 12:59 pm

    Laugh out Loud
    Soldiers Call
    Ben Vrackie
    Sheikhzayedroad
    Buffalo River

    Knocking off early today so didn’t bother with the last couple of races.

    Already have a small arb on most of them (eg. 4.0/3.9) which I think you should be able to get most days if you don’t mind risking a couple of quid at most.

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    bbobb 24 September 14, 2018 at 1:53 pm

    Eirene the one to be on there, not me. In some races you get a couple going odds on in play and losing.

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    Mr Crispy 34 September 14, 2018 at 6:05 pm

    Wahoo, I hit a refund.

    Unfortunately, no winners and I didn’t lay..

    The variance might be too much for me.

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    MbPunter 24 September 14, 2018 at 7:02 pm

    Which one did you get a refund for? I got one too. Not sure which one and none of my horses appeared to be that close to winning. Bar one that won.

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    Mr Crispy 34 September 14, 2018 at 7:43 pm

    I’m guessing it must have been Buffalo River..

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    MbPunter 24 September 14, 2018 at 8:20 pm

    Yeah looks like that one. Cheers.

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    Mr Crispy 34 September 15, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    Tried this again today, hit another refund.

    Managed to get a few more matches that were 4.0 or close to 4.0…

    Probably give tomorrow a miss – it’s Curragh.

    +0
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