Betfair Sportsbook Cheltenham Offer.
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1. Place a single bet on any race taking place on Day 1 of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival
2. If your horse wins at SP odds of 3/1 or greater, you’ll receive 3 free bets to the same value as your stake. Max qualifying stake per race is £/€25
3. Exchange bets excluded. Cashed out bets and free bets used do not qualify for this promotion.
+0March 3, 2016 at 8:21 am
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Learning the fundamentals takes 10-15 minutes and you’ll make £15 in the process.
Worth noting that the SP has to be 3/1+ not the price you take, so worth waiting til around the off. Also only first bet on each race counts.
+0Will be tricky to hit a 3/1+ winner, but great offer if you can!
I’m gonna need to start a new spreadsheet, just to track my Cheltenham offers and bets at this rate!
Thanks for posting it ;)
+0Could you overlay each race to guarantee a good profit on each race?
+0Yes mirrorball.
For example back a horse say at £25 @ 6.0. And lay him on exchange for £32.41 @ 6.5.
If he wins you have £125 profit in bookie + £75 in free bets (value £60) – £178.24 loss in exchanges. So £6.76 profit if he wins.
If he loses you lose £25 in bookie and gain £32.41 – commission in exchange so £6.76 profit if he loses.
I reckon this will guarantee £5 to £10 profit per race easy enough. So at least £35 profit for the day plus £15 profit on sky bet first race + £15 profit on Coral free bet per day.
Should start the first day of Cheltenham with a clear £65 profit on the first day on just those 3 promos.
Hope betfair continue this for Day 2 and Day 3 too.
+0Hi FoG_BLoG can we overlay on bet365 4/1 feature offer to gain profit ?
+0On days 2,3 and 4 theyre doing the normal 3/1 sp offer for each race, £25 refund.
Was thinking about the day 1 offer, if you were lucky enough to back 7 winners, you would have 7 * £75 of free bets – £525! plus possible bog on winnings.+0Get regular offer updates, tip and tricks, big offer alerts and more straight to your inbox.
FoG_BLoG Could you please tell me how you arrived at the figure of £32.41 in your example?
I can follow the maths well enough, but I’m trying to understand how you calculate the initial overlay amount based on your backing stake, b/l odds and expected bonus.
+0He probably worked in out in his head but you could use the calculator for a qualifying bet of £25 at odds of 8.4 and lay odds of 6.5.
QED
+0Lay stake for same guaranteed profit win or lose =(D4*(E5-1)+D4*D6*D7+D4)/(D14-D15)
I stuck it in a spreadsheet. The formula is above
D4 = your stake
E5 = back odds
D6 = free bet extraction (assume .8 for 80% extraction)
D7 = number of free bets you get (usually 1 free bet but for cheltenham set this to 3 for betfair)
D14 = the lay odds
D15 = exchange commission.+0Far easier just to use the expected net winnings 5*25 =125 + 80% 0f 75 = £185
Effective winnings of £185 from a £25 stake means back odds of 8.4.
Then input those numbers in Matt’s calculator on here.
Stake 25
Back odds 8.4
Lay odds 6.5
We get the same answer as you would expect.
I gave you credit in my 1st post for working it out in your head.
+0Thank you both for your help!
+0Either way works!
John, you want to have a spreadsheet or calculator here that calculates it automatically. You don’t want to be trying to do maths in your head while the countdown to the race is on and the horses lay and back stakes are moving fast!
Stay well away from anything close to 3/1 because you don’t want to miss this offer and even seconds before the race his SP might change. Anything with SP less than 3/1 won’t qualify for a free bet.
If you don’t want to get too mathematical about it. Then you can back horses at 5/1+ and lay about £30 on them at 6.5 or under you should be set for some guaranteed profit very roughly the same either way.
Or easiest back them at £25 and lay them all at £25/0.98=£25.51. You’re always laying with the same stake no matter the odds so no need to be trying to do calculations. If the horse loses then you win the same in the exchange as you lose in the bookie, so break even. If the horse wins you lose a little more in the exchange but get 3 free bets which will cover you as long as your back odds were close to your lay odds (like a gap of less than 0.5 as a rough rule). The disadvantage here is that you only win if your horse wins, so its not guaranteed profit either way.
+0You don’t need to worry about the maths really. As Patrick says if you just add 2.4 on to the back odds, then you’re good. 2.4 x £25 is your additional £60.
+0Thanks MbPunter. That makes it easy. Then just input the odds into Matt’s calculator to give you your lay.
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