Betfred – Money Back 2nd – Cheltenham 13:15

The favourite you can back at 7/2 (4.5) and lay on smarkets at 4.8 right now. So cost you €1.94 to back and lay him.

When I looked at this before 19% of horses (from something like Sept 2014 to Sept 2015) rated at 7/2 came in second (or 15% where 15 or more horses ran), so for a 15% chance at a free €25 bet its okay – should be a small profit.

But only about £1.

It is a bit open. 15 horses and the longest is 25/1.

Actually 4.7 on smarkets – so down since i started typing.

Look at the T+C. And compare with Will Hill.

Betfred: Maximum free bet refund £25 per customer per qualifying race.
Will: First selection per race only.

If you back 2 horses you can still only have one 2nd place so you dont break the condition of max £25 refund.

Betfred never says that. On Paddy Power it was worded similar to Betfred and I used to bet on everything shorter than 3/1, if there were two or three horses short priced then I would win the free bet if any of them were 2nd.

But as the lads said, there isn’t much value in this race, barely even worth backing the favourite.

Last year I did a bit of analysis, scraped all the horse race results off the attheraces.com website for the period of about 1 year. Uploaded into a database and ran some queries.

I have 214 horses that were 7/2 in races with 15+ runners. 16% won and 15% of them were 2nd.

Sorry, my fault. Yes it does say that a little further down.

Betfred barred me from promotions and then totally kicked me off their website so that I can’t login any more. I had won €12 total. Didn’t have much cash in the account so wasn’t even betting the full 25 on each refund race. I think I tweeted out some of their offers the day before they kicked me off with some tips on beating the offer. So it could have been that.