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BetStars- Premier League BOG

  • If your team trade higher during August then get the higher odds.

    Idea is to lay off half the stake now and then lay off the rest either.

    1. The price shortens, you lay off the other half at a nice tidy arb = profit.
    2. The price lengthens, you’ve already layed off the first half at the lower price which is an arb now compared to the BOG price = profit.
    3. The price doesnt move enough in either direction to make up for QL/commission = loss.

    Man City, Spurs and Chelsea are worth considering.

    Its only 3 matches in August but I think the odds can change quite a bit as the bookies/markets make up their minds.

    Man City will be expected to win three easy games so cant see much movement there.

    Spurs play Chelsea at home in August so depending on that result either or both teams drop points = odds lengthen (BOG!!), or one team registers three points against a real rival = odds shorten (ARB!!). I am going to have a crack at maybe all three teams, but at least Chelea and Spurs.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG
    61
    July 24, 2017 at 3:57 pm

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    feltt1p 7 July 24, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    I saw lots of arbs on these kind of markets a few weeks ago but tying money up for a full season is a big no no for me. 4 days on the golf is enough. Suppose if you’re just going a couple of £ it’s not a big deal but then it’s hardly worth it?

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 July 24, 2017 at 4:31 pm

    Yes I am going small-ish stakes, so not expecting this to be a goal mine. But every little helps.

    +0
    FoG_BLoG 61 September 1, 2017 at 9:36 am

    Don’t know if anyone was keeping track.

    I didn’t check how Chelsea’s odds lengthened after the first loss but later recorded the Betstars price at least 7.5 (from 4.5) and have spurs at 15.0 (from 11.0). City have just shortened in August so have them at the original price of 2.88.

    I didn’t lay, but if I did I would have had an arb on City now and nice bit of bog on Chelsea. Just shows there was value. By my s/s it shows by doing the half/half method that I would be sitting on a profit of €0.87 for City and €5.43 on Chelsea and a loss on Tottenham, because although they drifted, their lay price drifted too far and isn’t even close to the back right now, so looks like a €0.70 loss on them. (Based on €20 stakes, so almost €6 value for total €60 staked = 10% ROI).

    I think there is general value in these betstars offers, the only two problems is when a team starts to drift the exchange odds can drift out much faster. And the second problem is we are relying on betstars to give a fair price on the teams/golfers during Aug/End of 1st/2nd Round. Sometimes it seems that if their liability is big on popular selections (and it really will be huge if there is a big drift) then then they are very reluctant to push out the price obviously.

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    betman 41 September 1, 2017 at 10:49 am

    Mintbet are doing a money back of don’t qualify from group stage on champ league.
    Same approach would work as you either get your money back after laying half, or in most cases should get an arb to lay the other half if they qualify….. BUT the odds are way out other than a couple teams who’s price probably won’t shorten just by qualifying.
    Don’t know if they’ll sort odds out before first game but worth a mention as offers/methods evolve

    +0
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