Betstars/Betway – Shell Houston Open

I looked at the BetStars one last night and don’t think its really worth it if you estimate the probabilities.

At 8.2 on the exchanges gives about 12% chance of winning.
At around 3.4 on exchange for top 5 gives about 30% chance of top 5 gives (minus 12% winning) 18% chance of place 2 to 5 so about half that 9% chance of 2nd or 3rd.

So you are only getting your free bet back about 9% of the time.

Expected value of straight betting it = £350*.12 + (-£10)*.09 + (-£50)*.79 = £1.60.

So a slightly positive expected value but you will lose most of that in commission.

Or to back and lay at 8.0/8.2 and 5% commission is £3.37 QL which you will lose with a 91% probability, otherwise you win free bet extraction – QL = 40 – 3.37

So EV = .91*(-£3.37) + 0.09*(36.63) = +0.23p

It’s not going to hurt playing it and it’s a bit of fun, but not much or any profit in it in my opinion. Bit of a gamble if you think Spieth has what it takes.

If it helps sky are paying 6 places so you could maybe work something using that to give some cover?

BetBright is getting in on this. Struggling to see the value on this one too.

Money back 2nd or 50% back if you don’t make the cut.

You probably want to pick someone like Mickelson who has an okay chance of finishing 2nd and also an okay chance of not making the cut! But qualifying losses on him are waaaaaay too big.

They are also only giving 7.5 for Spieth so giving with one hand and taking back with the other…
…. forget I even posted this offer.

Generally if I was looking at any of these golf offers as a horse race with 100+ horses and favourite 7/1 I would never go near it for any money back offers.

Min bet £1. Max refund £20.
First placed bet. One bet per customer.
Money back as a free bet. Single bets only.
100% Money back IF 2ND in the Shell Houston Open beginning 31/03/2016.
50% of Win bet refunded if your player fails to make the cut in the Shell Houston Open beginning 31/03/2016.
Applies to outright market bets.
Free bet stakes do not qualify.
Win part of e/w bets only.
Cannot be used with any other offers.
Only applies to pre-tournament bets.
BetBright reserves the right to remove this promotion from the website at any time.