Cash out acca?

Hi!
As of now I have an €50 acca at Betstars that has 5 out of 6 legs in. I have now the option to cash out the bet for €141.85 which seems like a really good deal to me. That’s €91.85 in profit, €41.85 more profit than if I lay the last leg and it loses (or €91.85 more profit if it wins). But what is the downside to this? I’ve never read anything about an early cash out at this site which concerns me.

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the_don
1

March 30, 2016 at 6:38 am

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MarkCorrigan 15 March 30, 2016 at 7:04 am

Cash out offers are usually terrible value – that’s the downside. Are you sure they’re offering good value? If so, cash out. If not, continue as you were going to.

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BobbyP 2 March 30, 2016 at 9:37 am

What are the total acca odds and the current lay odds of the last leg? Should be pretty easy to work out whether it’s a better deal to cash out or just lay on the exchange

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the_don 1 March 30, 2016 at 10:03 am

Leg 1 @ 1.28 WIN
Leg 2 @ 1.20 WIN
Leg 3 @ 1.25 WIN
Leg 4 @ 1.25 WIN
Leg 5 @ 1.28 WIN
Leg 6 @ 4.2

Total: 12.9
Stake: €50
Cash out: €141.85
Lay odds at Smarkets for leg 6: 4.2

I don’t get this though. We play the accas to try to win the €50 free bet. But now I have an 100% chance to win €91.85 and you say it’s maybe better to lay the last leg with 76.2% chance to win €50 (~€40 after fb extraction) and a 23.8% risk to lose -€2.34? Or am I missing something here?

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Jdrobbo
Blocked
7 March 30, 2016 at 10:37 am

Instead of cashing out lay the last leg for £145.

If it loses you have the equivalent of having cashed out , but if it wins you will be £90 better off than if you cashed out.

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the_don 1 March 30, 2016 at 10:50 am

@jdrobbo, If I lay the last leg for €145, I get €27.52 if the bookie wins (=6 legs won). If the exchange wins (=5 legs won) I lose €-11.50 at the exchange but win the €50 free bet at the bookie.

So:
5 legs won: €-11.50 + €50*0.8 = €28.5
6 legs won: €27.52
vs.
Cash out: €91.85

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Blue 3 March 30, 2016 at 11:03 am

@ the_don Your calculations look seriously out somewhere. If you lay @ 4.2 for £144.77 you guarantee a profit of £131.86 either way. The cash out, offering a profit of £91.85, is terrible value in comparison.

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the_don 1 March 30, 2016 at 11:42 am

@Blue, Yeah I’m totally off, thanks. Sorry for that @jdrobbo. I forgot the little detail that you win quite a lot if all 6 legs win… Thanks all!

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