Coral England win and over 2.5 goals at 2/1

  • After my hungover fiasco yesterday, which actually turned out well for me, spotted another one. This could be good info but it seems to be too good to be true. So this is a request to ask what I’m doing wrong. £20 max bet at Coral. So if I place the bet at 3 but ignore the number of goals scored I’ve worked it out as follows.
    Back the offer £20 @ 3, lay England at Smarkets £33.52 @ 1.81, result is £6.42 by matched betting. I can’t see where goals scored makes any difference. What simple thing am I overlooking?

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    Mauri 0

    Re my last post, the matched bet return is £12.85 not £6.42. The other figures are correct. I’d originally calculated on a £10 bet and changed all the numbers For a £20 bet except the outcome.

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    Ice Magic 5

    You’ve made a mistake!!!!!

    Let’s say England win 1-0

    You lose the bet and the lay so you’ll be £50 down

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    Ice Magic 5

    PS: The correct lay for this bet is on Betfair exchange. Match Results and Over/under 2.5 goals.

    The current lay is 3.2 so no money to be made from this price boost.

    Could be a good gamble though

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    stuff28 0

    You can’t just ignore part of the bet. It doesn’t work like that. As Ice Magic says, a 1-0 or 2-0 England win and both your bets lose.

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    Mauri 0

    Thanks Ice. I was sure I was missing something and the 1-0 win escaped me. So if I back England 1-0 at Smarkets £2.50 @ 8.2 that covers my £20 bet. If is 1-0 England I make a few pence otherwise Any other result is £12.85 – £2.50 = £10.34 profit. How does that sound?

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    stuff28 0

    you also lose if England win 2-0

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    harris 8

    You said ignoring goals scored when the offer is specifically about the numbers of goals scored, if England win 1-0 or 2-0 you’re fcuked

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    Anto 1

    We can make this boost Risk Free with profit, and here is how.

    Coral
    Back England & O2.5: £20 @ 3.00 and Lay @ 1.81 = +£12.85

    Smarkets
    Back £4 on each of

    England 1-0 @ 8.20 = +£28.79 (return is £32.21 less commission and stake back)
    England 2-0 @ 9.80 = +£35.22 (return is £37.46 less commission and stake back)

    Returns:
    England Win 1-0: -£20 – £4 + £32.21 = £8.21 (+£4.21 profit)
    England Win 2-0: -£20 – £4 + £37.46 = £13.46 (+£9.46 profit)
    England Win 2-1 or better or Don’t Win: +£32.85 – £20 – £4 – £4 = £4.85 profit

    Anybody want to double check my figures ;) Pretty sure I’ve got this spot on but a 2nd confirmation would be great

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    Tony S 9

    Jesus Christ not again

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    MbPunter 24

    You haven’t factored in your Smarkets losses from the England lay.

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    Anto 1

    @MbPunter, yeh good point! Scrap that haha

    Can’t seem to edit other post to just write VOID.

    Your right though, I’d just took the £12.85 as its returned but if England win 1-0 / 2-0 then of course the lay loses and not picked up at coral!

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    Mauri 0

    Thanks guys. I’m still relatively new to this and haven’t placed one of these bets before except as a £5 free bet punt. Thanks for your guidance. Undecided yet but I might just place the bet, lay England then back 1-0 and 2-0. I’ll either break even or win about £7.50 to £8. depending on the correct score odds. Thanks again.

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    Anto 1

    as MB pointed out Marui, you’ll be at a loss for 1-0 / 2-0

    There’s no money to be made here, move on.

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    Mauri 0

    A few replies had come in that I hadn’t seen when I wrote my last comment.
    #MbPunter, Correct me if I’m wrong but I understood that the Smarket commissions are factored into the calculator on this site for my return of £12.85.
    #Anto Thanks for your calculations anyway.
    #Tony S, not very helpful when I was asking for ADVICE. Something constructive, even if critical, would have been more helpful, as would no reply at all. I only posted on this forum because I wanted advice but if I was right it would have been useful to everyone. As it is there is a profit there but obviously you won’t be taking it.

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    Jamesbob 0

    I think MbPunter was referring to the lay losses if England won 1-0 or 2-0 which the original lay didn’t cover and not commission. Since the coral bet requires England to win and there to be more than 2 goals the lay would incur losses in his first 2 profit calculations.

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