Eurovision

A bit mad at myself. News broke last night that Ireland’s song was banned from being shown on TV in China so the Eurovision pulled out of the contract and the Chinese are not allowed broadcast…..

I suppose controversy like that can get a swell of public opinion behind your song especially certain groups of ppl. I watched the odds fall on betfair from about 100.0 to about 50.0. Was still able to back on 366 at 51.0. Tiny tiny arb so didn’t bother. Now they are laying at 28.0 on betfair. Needless to say the bookies prices are gone. Could have had 66/1 at one point last night at some bookie.

Anyway, I think remember it was mentioned last year some ppl did well trading the Eurovision…. when the song came on live a bit of money came looking to back and then went away when the next song. Anyone with tips?

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FoG_BLoG
60

May 11, 2018 at 11:25 am

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 11, 2018 at 11:26 am

I’ve seen prices jump around like mad. Norway also were trading at 7.6 before yesterday performance and he drifted out to 34.0 now….

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mwilks 0 May 11, 2018 at 12:06 pm

Cheers FOG. I’ll look into this.

I remember making a load on backing the winner inplay.

Each round it was Portugal 12 points. They were miles ahead with only a few voting rounds left but the price on the exchange hardly moved after each round. So I just kept lumping on. It even got to the point where everyone had voted and prices (good prices) were still being offered. At this point I started to panic!

Then the hosts announced that there would the 2nd round of studio/phone voting. My arse fell out. Thankfully it made no difference and Portugal romped home.

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westmatch 30 May 11, 2018 at 12:44 pm

Ha yes, I kept backing in play and had well over 4 figs on it (drinking too) and couldnt understand the price. When they said about the other set of votes I nearly had an episode!!
It was more exciting than Cheltenham until then!

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MbPunter 24 May 11, 2018 at 1:27 pm

Ireland arbing all over the shop now.

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betman 41 May 11, 2018 at 7:50 pm

I do remember posts on this last year but nothing insightful

the logical but unhelpful ‘lay when price low and back when high’
and the completely illogical ‘lay before they sing, they are all rubbish so back for a profit after’
wonder if the latter has continued to lay the entire field in other events they perceive the standard as poor

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Bazza74 12 May 12, 2018 at 9:03 pm

.

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MbPunter 24 May 12, 2018 at 9:13 pm

Uk from 500s into 30s after that protest!

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 12, 2018 at 11:12 pm

Israel 2.25/1.98 at pp

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 12, 2018 at 11:30 pm

Cyprus 7.0/4.4 ?

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 12, 2018 at 11:31 pm

They are almost 100 pts behind I don’t know why the price won’t drift for Cyprus on bf.

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 12, 2018 at 11:42 pm

Well that’s why!

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MbPunter 24 May 12, 2018 at 11:43 pm

Arrgghhh was hopeful big Czech arbs were going to land there.

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FoG_BLoG 60 May 12, 2018 at 11:57 pm

I think I shouted out Israel on the bad ew thread. Anyway I didn’t notice any obvious trading opportunities at bf but lots of arbs during the voting process. You had to be quick but not too quick, bookie was slow in some cases cutting odds as the market shortened.

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Matt
Keymaster
1607 May 13, 2018 at 2:04 am

There are certainly more opportunities now under the new voting system. The jury and public vote results can differ wildly, so the fact that they reveal the jury results first means the positions at the ‘halfway’ stage are often misleading.

Tonight was a prime example with Austria and Sweden being way out in front, only to drop out of the final running early with low public vote scores. That’s why Cyprus and Israel were still favourites at ‘halfway’ as they had always been the most likely to score well on the public vote.

There’s also the algorithm to consider, which is used when revealing the jury vote results. The algorithm is used to decide what order the results are revealed in, which is done to make the competition appear as close as possible for as long as possible.

It’s a contest that is ridiculed by many, but played correctly, there are definitely profitable opportunities there.

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