Extra place offers
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May be a stupid question, but are extra place offers any real benefit? I have seen some on here saying its not worth it and looking myself it appears lay odds on the exchange are already raising QL’s. Just wanted to know everyones opinions?
+0January 9, 2017 at 10:45 am
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Yeah to me it seems like unless you have a close to zero QL (or an arb), there’s no real value, as you’re holding out for a horse to finish in a specific place. And if you’re losing 1/2 quid each race, it’s guna be tricky even breaking even over time from that.
I think it just depends if you’ve got time to sit on the exchange all day waiting for that opportunity where the odds are favourable.
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All depends on what you can win tho. I like to treat it as though every horse has the same chance of finishing in say 5th place (if the extra place is 5th) given that its a bit more of a random place than say winning where u would expect the favourite to be more likely.
So I then work out my QL loss vs the extra profit I’d get if I hit the winner. If say the QL on a horse MR FACT was £2 and its £82 extra profit from the bookie if MR FACT came 5th, you are effectively getting 40/1 on that. So if its a 20 runner race it looks pretty good to me. You then have the extra possibility of non runners making the bookie payout better than the exchange liability (this tends to be more so on the place market) plus the good old BOG on sites that do offer this.
I think my advice mitch and bob would more so be which races are worthwhile. I love these offers on 20 runner races on saturday when the bookie is paying 5 places at 1/4 odds, get bets on nice and early and then expect a couple of non runners to help things even more. But the ones Sky are currently offering that Matt is blogging, an extra 4th place at 1/5 odds on a random mid week race I dont see that much value there unless in a way u spot an arb as per any race. But sky odds on their offer races tend to be too poor to offer anything.
Problem is anyone who knows anything about horses will tell u there are unlikely to be that many good extra places saturday races until cheltenham in march. A lot of the major races now will be run outs for said cheltenham horses. So it might be a case of biding your time on these as (1) cheltenham offers lots of chances plus the grand national shortly after and (2) the flat season starts around april which seems to me to have many more of these offers
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I agree with matchdem here, there won’t be any decent extra place races til chelts might be worth checking the Cheltenham forum to see what happened last year.
These are extremely profitable, but you have to have the bookies doing the offer, its no good backing a random horse at sky and hoping it’ll come in unless you can get a no-loss qualifier. you need at least 4 or 5 bookies that are doing 1/4 odds or the risk is too great. And offering 1/5 for 6 places is a much worse offer IMO.
Personally, I try to back 8-12 horses at a quid loss each over as many bookies as possible. Remember, most bookies still offer extra places for the gubbed. and during chelts there should be other offers (MB 2nd etc) on for the races making it better value
BTW, MR FACT is a donkey!
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I got £50 e/w on Mr Fact at 5/1 and layed for QUALIFYING PROFIT!
He finished 5th by 5 lengths so I got my high 5 refund (which I punted on Chelsea to win the league boosted to 10/1, looking good now) and won my place bet at both bookie AND exchange. Even better his SP was 10/1 so I cleaned up with BOG+!
And that is a FACT!
(may not be a fact)
+0I heard that’s why bet365 pulled the bog + fog! (Although not sure how u got high 5 coming 5th 😉 )
Mr facts race before was even better. Fell at the first triggering faller insurance, remounted to win by a nose (Mr clown got money back 2nd beaten by a nose) in a 5 way photo finish. Best bit was a stewards enquiry where Mr fact was demoted to 5th to hit the extra place and paid at first past the post. Wouldn’t be a fact if bog didn’t kick in either
+0Thanks for the replies guys! Sounds like they can be profitable, but like you say, wait until Cheltenham to actually find a decent offer to do, that correct?
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Yeh mitch I’d agree, though if I see any races come up in the meantime Ill be sure to post in the new offers forum as there could be a couple (tend to be on saturdays)
Fog and betman thats a good win! I was gutted the week before when I backed him to win and he came second to LOLLIPOP….lucky had faller insurance on Don Key though!
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Just goes to show matchedem that if you pile enough in with low ql’s then there’s a lot of offers out there that can trigger
Just a bitch getting the low ql at times, especially when the markets don’t fancy a horse like Don Key… end up with a huge exchange to bookies gap
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