Faller Insurance – Matchie's tips
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OK Matchie , here’s your chance to prove all the doubters wrong!.
Share your success and get the amount of praise and recognition you richly deserve.Thursday Feb 2
Clonmel 3.35 Betstars
Clonmel 4.10 Betstars
Clonmel 4.40 BetstarsWincanton 2.00 Betstars 888Sport Casse Tete @3.25
Wincanton 3.45 Betstars 888Sport ?
Wincanton 4.15 Betstars 888SportTowcester 2.10 Betstars
Towcester 3.55 Betstars ?+0February 2, 2017 at 10:15 am
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It’s ok Matchie, there weren’t alot of fallers. There was only one decent bet today – Weatherman on High5. Try again tomorrow if you have time, or Saturday. Just tell us your top 3 faller possibles.
You picked mostly favourites with odds that gave a small QL. Would outsiders not be more likely to fall?.
How do you research a horse’s past history for falling. Is there a web site you use?.
Keep going – we all want to win.
+0Sporting life sleepless. Got the racecards and u can click on horse for full history, see a summary of how it ran etc
Or just a low ql/ made up ql and pretend you researched it ;-)
+0Sleepless you give matchedem far too much respect.
Low qualifying loss is the key.
Low priced horses can fall ,especially when fighting out a finish after 3 miles.
Matchedem been on here full time for at least 18 months and this seems to be the extent of his life.+0Yeah I mean, lets be honest, if you’re betting on horses that generally aren’t fallers, are making £1.50 qual loss, I don’t see how this could ever be profitable.
Given that most races don’t have fallers, I just find it hard to believe you can make this profitable really. All you’re getting at the end of it is a £25 fb. If his £1.50 qualifying loss per bet that he quoted before is true, he would’ve made a loss of 12 quid or so today. And as far as I’m aware there were no fallers? So you’re betting on a horse falling in a race and the fact that you’re gonna pick it, and if you’re not picking horses with faller form, I don’t see how that’s ever gonna work out. Definitely needle in a haystack type stuff.
With almost QL, yeah it’s ‘profitable’ money-wise, but I imagine you could probably make the same or better profits with some super basic trading on the exchange..
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So bitta and jealous of my profits! I’ll show u both tomorrow. And I gave 1.50 as a guide what I’d be willing to take…today’s were less than a quid on average. And no non runners meant no reduction factors…another rarity which meant today was the worst day since I started
Robbo u seem angry , foaming at the mouth stuff. You can make similar profits if u comet
Thanks sleepless I’ll go again tomorrow and Saturday we will win in the end
+0How many horses did you back in January and how many fallers you have?
Surely easier than guessing what your strikerate is?
+0I’m not saying he’s making up it necessarily, but I can’t think of many/any things in matched betting where someone has to go to lengths to prove its profitable. A £25fb to me just makes it seem like the variance is going to be far too great to reliably hit enough to triggers to make it worth anyones time, or even avoid a loss..
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Personally think he will show a proft over the course of the month.
But definitely interested in his exact numbers over a large sample size, because 1 in 5 sounds ambitious.
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Sure I’ve done this before but January as an example:
82 separate site bets on a particular day, 204 bets in total. Profit £554.04
2 mins work to place a bet = EV of almost £3 LOLLIPOP if anyone thinks its not worth it
1st Feb 9 bets in total. Profit £27. Again £3 a bet
2nd Feb was a dark day, which we have, but TODAY WE GO AGAIN!!
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Ok so maybe we don’t go again today for big profits as only 1 meeting!! 4 tomorrow so that might be the better one. Anyways today:
Betstars: Catterick 215/320/355
888 had the abandoned meeting unfortunately, and waiting to see what 188bet and 10bet do
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Anythin with Kieron Gethings on its back!…
+0Takes more than 2 minutes to find a bet with low qualifying loss.
Dont believe a word of it Matchie,but if it makes you feel good thats ok.
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Maybe it takes you more than 2 minutes matey im always the 2 minute man tho…guess im just more of a pro
and making money makes me feel good.
Moving on to today:
145 Should be easy to bet e/w on 1 of the 2 favourites and make a bit of profit as an each way arb too. I’ve got Sam Spinner
215 ?
320 Treaty Girl + Total assets (both arbs!)
355 Black Narcissus (non runner after placing should give a nice red factor if he wins too)+0Just answer the Q lol. How many horses you back for faller insurance and how many fell?
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Betstars: Catterick 215/320/355
Alchimix/Actinpieces/Black Narcisus. Have a bit of faller history
Waiting for best lay odds
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