Footy trading
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I know this is nothing new and footy trading on the exchanges is old hat but something I started doing to try and squeeze a bit more out of those weekly in play free bet clubs by betting on under 2.5 goals when the match starts and waiting to lay for a small QL profit. Obviously it’s risky if an early goal goes in and I have been stung but if you choose the match carefully beforehand and ideally be able to watch it you are ok.
Now doing a bit more of this on the exchange, with small stakes at the moment, with under 2.5 goals and reacting to late goals in games, eg when a team goes two goals up at 70mins backing the current correct score and laying when it drops very quickly.
Appreciate this is not matched betting but would be interested if anybody else is doing similar, any tips, advice or experience?
+0February 17, 2019 at 10:38 am
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Your first example is just gambling (unless when you say ‘choose matches carefully’ you are identifying incorrect market prices for the o2.5 goal market)
I’m curious what you mean on the 2nd example? Are you suggesting when a team goes 2 goals up late the market price is wrong, and that current score is more likely because at 2 goal margin late on it’s almost game over and further goals less likely?
+0I’m no where near clever enough to work out if markets are priced wrong, and agree it’s a risk (or a gamble). In the first example, today I looked at real v girona, took into account it’s an early game, real played midweek champs league and girona would sit back. Layed u2.5 at 1.38 and traded out at 1.55 after 12 boring minutes. Not massive profit but that’s the theory.
In the 2nd one, yes i’m looking at when a team goes 2 up the game is done and getting on the correct score straight away and then trading out as the price rapidly falls.
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Sounds very interesting that strategy mate. I used to be big on studying football betting theories and have ignored them since focusing in on my profitable horse racing activities.
May well look into those things you mentioned/and my old ideas again. And start adding some more opportunities to my portfolio!+0
Oh! Just realised this is a footy thread! Thought it was a reply to my last post on the bad ew thread!
Still glad I read it all the same!
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Thought it was a bit random to a bad ew post!
+0It’s only ever going to be profitable long run if you’re beating the market, so you can probably put a line through the first now.
The fact you say ‘price falls quickly’ does make me wonder if there’s something in that. If for example the markets take a couple minutes to react to a change in the pattern of the game itself. But with this one you will hit some additional goals and lose entire stake, so profit on others needs to outweigh those cases
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any kind of trading is possible to make money, but it takes most people years to get an edge over the market, something as simple as laying bets after 2 goals is unlikely to be profitable as its just too easy, not saying it cant be done but until you have a defined edge over the market you are just gambling, and if you do get an edge….dont share it as it will no longer exist, i looked at this exact theory myself a while ago and couldnt find an edge, trading in the actual stock market is better for so many reasons but would be interesting to see how you get on. good luck 🙂
+0The 2nd one, last night real sociedad went 3 nil up around 70 mins, when the market came back you could back 3 nil on the exchange at 2.96, only a small amount, now I suspect this was somebody getting it wrong, within a couple of mins traded out at 1.48. Of course the risk is another quick goal will wipe you out. That’s why i’m only brave enough to go small amounts. If you’re watching the game you can generally get a feel of the game being killed off.
+0Appreciate the comments people, just backing blindly when somebody goes 2 up is just too easy and obviously not a good idea. Needs to be selective based on the match circumstances and the price being higher than it should be when the market goes live again. Will see how I get on with small stakes.
+0The edges are likely to be v low margins too. You’re extremely unlikely to get anything like bad each way betting.
I found something last season that I estimated to be in the 0.8 to 1 % ROI, which is ok I guess if you get bigger money on but I hadn’t tested enough data to confirm it. Not even run a match this season on it.were you backing sociedad at smarkets? If so I think u may have stumbled across a different low liquidity edge to the one you think u found
+0Think you’re right Betman the return will probably be low and I’ve not got enough time to be across enough games. And definitely nothing like bad ew! Still keeps me interested in the footy.
The sociedad one was with Smarkets last night, not sure what the edge was I came across, just thought i’d got lucky!
+0If you can find an edge the only limit to scaling up is exchange liquidity though, as opposed to being stuck on 1% stakes or blocked altogether by a bookie
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